GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary

[B]Forex Market Commentary for April 30, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary

A weak US GDP briefly maltreated the dollar but by the end of Friday it still closed lower versus the European currencies, particularly the euro. But dollar/yen recovered losses and this means the crosses remain in the driver’s seat. It should trade sideways to lower today amid light volume because of the Japanese holiday and the upcoming May Day.

Euro/dollar

The overbought euro/dollar rallied further on Friday to reach an 11 ½-year high. It must take advantage quickly of its bullish momentum to extend gains at these high levels or risk aggressive sales.
Immediate resistance is at 1.3705. Above 1.3735, resistance comes at 1.3805.
There is initial support at 1.3615. A break below 1.3575 would signal a test of the good support at 1.3525.
Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen reversed early losses to close unchanged on the day after piercing the top of a triangle. It got stuck in an inside range on a weekly basis, as it was trapped between two Gann pivots at 119.65 and 118.25.

Below 118.85, strong support is still seen at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75
Resistance remains at 119.65 from another 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and 120.15. Distant resistance now comes 120.75.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar recovered on Friday after falling since April 18 and this suggests an upmove this week. This is primarily because is reached the bottom of its rising channel.

Immediate support is at 1.9895. A close below this level would signal trouble for the Cable’s uptrend. It would then challenge the 1.9850 area.
Initial resistance is at 2.0015. Above 2.0070, resistance remains between 2.0131 and 2.0151.
Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc recouped some of its losses but remains under medium-term pressure.
Immediate support is at 1.2015. Below 1.1996 there is a key level at 1.1945.
Initial resistance is at 1.2085. A break above the further resistance at 1.2145 would signal a more sustained recovery. The next level is 1.2200.
Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish