[B]Forex Market Commentary for May 14, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar basically consolidated on Friday, as expected, with support from the high inflation data and resistance from the weak retail sales. Only the euro reversed most of the Thursday’s losses. Expect sideways trading today.
Euro/dollar
One day after sinking to a one-month low in line with the head-and-shoulders pattern that targets 1.3375, euro/dollar reversed these losses. The close below 1.3530 keeps this formation alive – for now.
So, a close above 1.3530 would signal another attack on the upside. If 1.3679 gives way, then look for a test of the distant resistance at 1.3805.
There is initial support at 1.3480. Below 1.3463 there is support at 1.3440. Next support is at 1.3390.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen recovered from a 10-day low to end with reduced losses on Friday. It should consolidate further today.
Good support remains at 119.65 from another 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and 120.15.
Resistance is still seen at 120.50 and 120.75. Distant resistance now comes at 121.05 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 120.55 and 121.55.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar consolidated in a tight range on Friday after collapsing to a one-month low on Thursday. After treading water for a little while, look for another slide.
Immediate support is still in place at 1.9770 from a Fibonacci retracement level. A close below the 1.9740 level would signal the end of the uptrend. It would then challenge the 1.9655 area.
Initial resistance remains at 1.9855. The next levels are 1.9905 and then 1.9995. Above 2.0070, the pound is back on the attack, but this is very unlikely.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc consolidated in a tight range on Friday after surging to a one-month high a day earlier. Following some further consolidation, it should attempt to push further up.
Initial resistance remains at 1.2215 from a Fibonacci retracement level. That’s followed by 1.2265 and 1.2285. Distant resistance is at 1.2350.
Support still comes at 1.2175. The next levels loom at 1.2100 and 1.2060. Distant support lies at 1.1995.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish