[B]Forex Market Commentary for May 15, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar was all over the place on Monday during a session dominated by cross trading. The euro strengthened lightly while the yen, the pound and the franc slipped. Expect further sideways trading today while the market seeks new trading triggers.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar struggled higher on Monday as it gained more against the yen and the franc, but that was sufficient to derail the head-and-shoulders pattern. It gas little reason to be so high but has no reason to decline either. Choppy trading should dominate.
Initial resistance is at 1.3570. If 1.3679 gives way, then look for a test of the distant resistance at 1.3805. This is very unlikely.
There is initial support at 1.3505 and then at 1.3480. Below 1.3463 there is support at 1.3440. Next support is at 1.3390.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen traded sideways on Monday, as expected. It should consolidate further today.
Good support remains at 119.65 from another 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and 120.15.
Resistance is still seen at 120.50 and 120.75. Distant resistance now comes at 121.05 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 120.55 and 121.55.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar edged lower on Monday, as expected, but held off the one-month low reached on Thursday. After consolidating further, look for another slide.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.9770 from a Fibonacci retracement level. A close below the 1.9740 level would signal the end of the uptrend. It would then challenge the 1.9655 area.
Initial resistance remains at 1.9855. The next levels are 1.9905 and then 1.9995. Above 2.0070, the pound is back on the attack, but this is very unlikely.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc reversed early losses to close higher on Monday. Following some further consolidation today, it should attempt to push further up.
Initial resistance remains at 1.2215 from a Fibonacci retracement level. That’s followed by 1.2265 and 1.2285. Distant resistance is at 1.2350.
Support is still in place at 1.2175. The next levels loom at 1.2100 and 1.2060. Distant support lies at 1.1995.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish