[B]Forex Market Commentary for June 8, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar rallied against the European currencies but gave back its gains against the yen. The big factor was the surge of the yield of the 10-year Notes to above 5%; with the yields rising, the US currency should be further supported. The US trade data should be weak as usual, but the short-term outlook is now positive for the dollar. But keep an eye on the stock markets.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar fell on Thursday to give up all of the gains made earlier this week. The double bottom if on the backburner now.
Immediate support is at 1.3375. Below this the Fibonacci retracement level there is support at 1.3275.
Initial resistance is now seen at 1.3450. Only a break above the important level at 1.3522 would signal a retest of the 1.3553 area. A more aggressive upmove would attack 1.3610, but this is unlikely. Distant resistance is at 1.3683.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell encountered choppy trading on Thursday and managed to hit the lowest level since May 18, but then closed little changed. It then rallied in Asia on news that Japan’s machinery orders rebounded only 2.2 percent in April after falling 4.5 percent in March. The short-term outlook is now bullish. Key level remains at 121.05 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 120.55 and 121.55.
Initial resistance is at 121.55. Above 122.18 the next resistance remains at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Initial support is at 120.78. Next levels remain at 120.55 and 120.05.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar sank to the lowest level since May 31 and the weakness was in line with expectations. The BoE left rates on hold. It should attempt to consolidate today.
Initial support is at 1.9750. Below 1.9727 there is distant support at 1.9655.
Immediate resistance is at 1.9825. The next level is at 1.9855. If the resistance at 1.9900 breaks, then look for an aggressive rally to 2.0035.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc rallied on Thursday aggressively enough to erase the losses made the previous two days. The medium-term outlook is now mixed.
Initial resistance is pegged at 1.2270. Above the resistance at 1.2332 there is distant resistance is at 1.2370.
Immediate support is at 1.2220. Below 1.2150, the next levels are 1.2125, 1.2095 and 1.2065.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Slightly bearish