[B]Forex Market Commentary for June 15, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar marched higher against all the majors, except for the euro. On Friday, all eyes will be on the second inflation report – the CPI, the industrial production and the U of Mich report. Expect the demand for the dollar to continue, but at a reduced pace.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar marked time on Thursday after recovering from a 2 ½-month low a day earlier. Following a recovery early, today the pair should extend its medium-term decline.
Initial resistance remains at 1.3335. Above 1.3370, the next strong level remains 1.3450. Only a break above the important level at 1.3522 would signal a retest of the 1.3553 area. A more aggressive upmove would attack 1.3610, but this is unlikely.
Immediate support is in place at 1.3264. Below this level there is support at 1.3175 from a Fibonacci retracement level.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen made another rally on Thursday to a new high for the uptrend. Look for some pullback before some more strength will be seen.
Above 123.25 the next resistance level now comes at 123.87. Distant resistance is at 124.50.
Initial support is at 122.75. Strong support is at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00. Next level is now 121.55.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar slipped on Thursday but continued to lack much direction so more information is still needed. The medium term outlook is still slightly bearish, but again only a close below 1.9650 would confirm this view.
Good resistance remains at 1.9770. If the strong 1.9800 level breaks, then look for a further rebound to 1.9870.
Initial support is at 1.9660. If it breaks, look for further support at 1.9623. A close below this level would signal a further slide to 1.9545. This is unlikely.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside boas
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
The SNB matched the market expectations and raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point to 2.5 percent, the highest since September 2001. It also produced a hawkish statement that suggests further tightening this year. But that was expected and dollar/Swiss franc rallied further, if in an inside range. The medium term outlook remains bullish, in line with the inversed head-and-shoulders.
Above 1.2470, good resistance follows at 1.2540. Distant resistance looms at 1.2570.
Immediate support is at 1.2430. The next levels are 1.2380 and 1.2350. Below 12285, strong support follows at 1.2210.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed