[B]Forex Market Commentary for July 3, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar plummeted on Monday as well in a market thinned by the proximity of the Independence Day holiday. The European and the commodity currencies should attempt to advance further up against the dollar and the yen. Tuesday will see the release of the pending home sales and the factory goods orders reports for May – these are not market movers.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged to a new high for the uptrend after surpassing the target of a bullish flag at 1.3550. The short-term and the medium-term outlooks are positive.
Immediate resistance is seen at 1.3685. A break above this level would signal another aggressive attack on the upside to 1.3750. Distant resistance looms at 1.3810.
Initial support is at 1.3595. Next levels are 1.3563, 1.3505, 1.3480 and 1.3440.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell to a nearly three-week low on Monday. It should attempt to rally today after getting support from the trendline.
Key support comes at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Immediate resistance is at 123.00. Next level is 123.55. Above it, strong resistance is seen from a 50-point pivot at 124.00 that targets 123.50 and 124.50.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar surged to a 26-year high on Monday. The outlook is bullish ahead of the rate hike on Thursday.
Above 2.0180, resistance is seen at 2.0250 and 2.0315.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0135. Only a break below 2.0020 on a closing basis would signal the likely end of the upmove, but this is unlikely. In that case you’d have to look for the further support at 1.9910.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc fell sharply on Monday and reached the target of a bearish reversal formation in the 1.2100 area. The outlook is bearish.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.2100. Strong supports follow soon at 1.2065 and 1.2030.
Initial resistance is at 1.2175. Next level is 1.2250. Distant resistance is at 1.2310.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed