[B]Forex Market Commentary for July 10, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar consolidated on Monday, with the euro and the Swissy marking time, cable a tad higher and the yen off its lows. The immediate outlook for the dollar is sideways to lower.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar slipped on Monday in a tight range and well within Friday’s boundaries. It’s close to the top but it’s overbought and the general strength is unconvincing. However, sell is only if below 1.3565 only on a closing basis. The medium term view is still bullish.
Immediate resistance is still seen at 1.3635. A close above the pivot high at 1.3679 would signal a further aggressive attack to 1.3750.
Initial support is at 1.3570. Below 1.3530, the next levels are 1.3480 and 1.3440.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell from its highest level since June 26 but it’s not dangerous yet. But the pressure should last today as well.
Initial support is at 123.10. Key support remains at 122.50 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Immediate resistance is at 123.65. Above it, strong resistance is seen from a 50-point pivot at 124.00 that targets 123.50 and 124.50.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied unexpectedly on Monday but held below the 26 1/4-year high that was reached last week. The overbought pair still stands at the edge of the abyss. But a trigger needs to be pulled for this move to unfurl.
Initial resistance is at 2.0195. Above it, resistance is still seen at 2.0250 and 2.0315.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0125. A break below 2.0020 on a closing basis would signal the likely end of the upmove, but this is unlikely. In that case you’d have to look for the further support at 1.9910.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc traded sideways on Monday, as expected. The medium-term outlook remains mixed as well.
Initial resistance is still seen at 1.2205. Next level remains at 1.2250. Distant resistance is at 1.2310.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.2140. Below 1.2100, strong supports follow at 1.2065 and 1.2030.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed