GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary

[B]Forex Market Commentary for July 13, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]

GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
Cross trading dominated Thursday’s market, with the euro rallying across the board. Since euro/sterling is trading one day up and one day down, the overbought cable edged lower today. Dollar/yen marked time but should remain in demand, along with the crosses again the yen. Cross trading should be the safer method, given the bevy of important US data due today, namely the: retail sales and the U of Mich survey.


The overbought euro/dollar climbed to a marginally new lifetime high on Thursday before giving up its gains. Since there was no corrective decline in sight, just hold long positions with profit taking on a stop.

Immediate resistance is now seen at 1.3814. A break above it would signal a further aggressive rally to 1.3887.
Initial support is at 1.3745. Below the strong support at 1.3665, there is a distant level at 1.3570.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish


Dollar/yen marked time on Thursday. It should attempt to climb up today, as the yen should remain under pressure versus the European and the commodity currencies.
Above the key resistance at 122.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00, distant resistance comes at 123.65.
Initial support remains at 122.00. Next level is 121.50. Strong supports follow at 120.89 and 120.65.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly higher
LONG-TERM: Bullish


Sterling/dollar encountered choppy trading on Thursday but remained near its new 26 1/4-year high. Hold long positions with a trailing stop, as the pair is severely overbought.
Above 2.0364 there is resistance is at 2.0430. Distant resistance looms at 2.0530.

Immediate support is still seen at 2.0280. Next level is at 2.0200. Only a break below 2.0150 on a closing basis would signal a more sustained decline, but this is unlikely.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss franc gave up most of the gains made on Wednesday and is probing the lowest level of the year. The medium-term outlook is still negative, but some recovery is possible today.

Initial support is seen at 1.1994 from a pivot low. Distant support follows at 1.1883.
Above 1.2065, resistance is seen at 1.2100. Next level comes at 1.2175. Distant resistance is at 1.2235.

Oscillators are falling.

LONG-TERM: Bearish