[B]Forex Market Commentary for February 12, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar rallied against the yen and slipped the European currencies early Monday. The G7 ministers warned against carry trades, which usually involve selling the low-yielding yen, so the artificially weak Japanese currency to gain against the dollar. But the yen remains weak because the financial ministers left it the Japanese to deal with their currency! Therefore, short yen positions against the dollar, commodity and the European currencies remain favored.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar is still struggling for direction, falling on Friday and struggling higher in Asia today. The pair is stuck in an inside range and must exit the consolidation area between1.2825 to 1.3050 to attract new positions. The upside is favored.
Above the four-week high of 1.3074, the pair has strong resistance at 1.3130. Distant resistance is pegged at 1.3200.
Immediate support is at 1.2975. Below 1.2920 there are two pivotal lows at 1.2882 and 1.2868.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied to a near two-week high in Asia following the rubber-legged G7 fin mins “critique” of the weak yen. The rally should continue, but at a reduced pace.
Above 122.18, resistance is seen at 122.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 122.00 and 123.00.
Initial support is at 121.55. The pair then has strong support at 121.05 from a 50-pip pivot, which targets 121.55 and 120.55. Below 119.95, dollar/yen retains good support at 119.65 from a 50-pip pivot, which targets 120.15 and 119.15.
Oscillators are rising, validating the bullish momentum.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell sharply on Friday as well, but should now recover some of the losses.
Initial resistance is at 1.9535. If the Fibonacci retracement level at 1.9565 breaks, then the pound would recover to the next level 1.9620.
Below the four-week low at 1.9454 there is support at 1.9385. A break below this level would signal a re-test the pivotal low at 1.9261.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc made a further recovery for part of Friday but then stalled. It should now attempt to decline first and then attempt to advance again.
Immediate support remains at 1.2430. Then, there is support at 1.2375.
Above 1.2570, resistance is still seen at 1.2660 from the target of a bull flag. Next level is 1.2720.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish