[B]Forex Market Commentary for March 1, 2007 by Cornelius Luca[/B]
GFT Daily Forex Market Commentary
The dollar consolidated on Wednesday after its rout a day earlier. This was not an easy feat, given the soft reports on GDP, home sales and Chicago PMI. But it was a relief to see the US indices trimming some of their losses from Tuesday, even though the downside risk persists. The bias for the dollar is bearish today, but take your cues from the ISM report.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar encountered choppy trading but got stuck in an inside range and closed little changed on Wednesday. Once again, following some minor corrective pullback, the pair should try to make another move higher.
Above Tuesday’s high of 1.3258, the pair has strong resistance from a pivotal top at 1.3296. Further resistance looms at 1.3325 and 1.3367.
Immediate support is at 1.3197. Next support looms at 1.3180. Below 1.3135, support is now seen at 1.3080.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with bullish bias
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen recovered marginally on Wednesday. Following a brief recovery today, dollar/yen should attempt a further downmove. Key support remains at 118.25 from another 50-point pivot that targets 117.75 and 118.75.
Below 117.53, support comes from a 50-point pivot at 116.85, which targets 116.35 and 117.35. Distant support is at 115.50.
Above 119.00, strong resistance follows at 119.65 from a 50-pip pivot, which targets 120.15 and 119.15.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Sterling/dollar
The pound recovered sharp losses made in early trading but closed little changed on Wednesday.
The immediate outlook remains mixed.
Initial resistance remains at 1.9675. A pivotal high follows at 1.9748. Above 1.9775 there is resistance at 1.9810.
Below 1.9590, the pound still finds support at 1.9565. A break below 1.9500 would signal a decline to 1.9403.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss franc treaded waster after collapsing on Tuesday. Once again, following a brief bounce, the pair should take another swing at the downside.
Below 1.2142, support is still seen at 1.2100. Strong support then follows at 1.2030. Distant support is at 1.1880.
Above 1.2240, resistance is in place at 1.2305. Next level is 1.2370.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish