Forex Market Commentary for January 28, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar fell versus the pound and yen while rising against the euro and the franc on Friday as the Market consolidated. Trading should be choppy through Wednesday afternoon, when the Fed is supposed to cut rates. But the odds for a 50-bp cut are not so good – and even 25 pbs. Intraday trading remains favored for today.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell on Friday but was well engulfed in an inside range. The upside is likely today.
Initial resistance now comes between 1.4790 and 1.4800. Above 1.4870 there are pivotal highs at 1.4990 and 1.4966.
Immediate support is seen at 1.4660. Below 1.4640 there is further support at 1.4590. Distant support now comes at 1.4500.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell from a nine-day high on Friday as consolidation continues. The top was defended by 107.95. Mixed trading is likely today.
Above 107.35, strong resistance remains at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45. Distant resistance is at 109.65.
Good support remains at 106.35. Strong support follows at 105.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 115.00 and 116.00. Distant support lies at 104.25.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied to a three-week high on Friday but the move looks overdone. It should some pressure on profit taking today.
Initial resistance is at 1.9940. The next level is at 2.0034. Distant resistance is now seen at 2.0100.
Below 1.9780, good support comes at 1.9720. Below 1.9680, there is further support at 1.9630. The next level is at 1.9430. Distant support is pegged at 1.9338.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss rallied on Friday to reverse the losses of the past two days. The pair remains oversold, so some more strength is likely here.
Initial resistance comes at 1.1030. This is followed by 1.1060. Distant resistance is now seen at 1.1135.
Immediate support comes at 1.0935. A pivot low is at 1.0840. A distant support follows at 1.0760.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish