Forex Market Commentary for February 13, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar remained under pressure versus the euro and the pound, as expected, but edged up against the yen. Again, the US currency should encounter some choppy trading today, but the upside remains favored, as the stock market should see some more strength. This holds only if the US retails sales didn’t sink much in January – if they did, look for another dip for the dollar.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied to a three-day high with help from a marginally decent ZEW report but remained in an inside range on Tuesday. The downside remains guardedly favored, as the rising trendline comes in at 1.4510.
Immediate support now comes at 1.4525. Then, it’s the trendline nearby at 1.4510. Below the pivot at 1.4440, there are two other pivot points at 1.4367 and 1.4311.
Strong resistance is at 1.4655. Above 1.4690, resistance now comes at 1.4730. Distant resistance follows at 1.4848.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen I slacking much direction and this translates in alternating up and down days. It closed up on Tuesday but remained in an inside range. The pair should consolidate today as well.
Good resistance now comes at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot that targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance follows at 105.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 115.00 and 116.00.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar broke out from an inside range as it rallied on Tuesday to a 4-business day high. However, the medium-term selling pressure should continue remains negative.
Initial resistance comes at 1.9660. A break above 1.9720 would signal a further rally to 1.9810, but this is unlikely.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9575. This is followed by 1.9515. Below 1.9470, a pivotal low comes at 1.9338. The next level follows at 1.9185. Distant support moved down to 1.9103.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss traded sideways in a very tight range, but remained in an inside range. Trade it only on a breakout or as part of a cross.
Initial resistance is at 1.1065. Strong resistance remains at 1.1103. Above 1.1160, resistance comes at 1.1245.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.0970. The next level is 1.0880. Below 1.0770, support is pegged at 1.0729 from a pivot low.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish