Forex Market Commentary for February 21, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar rallied on Wednesday following the unexpectedly strong US hosing starts data. This spotty strong report won’t hold for long, so the US currency should remain under medium-term pressure. The dollar should encounter mixed trading today, with divergent paths against the majors. Keep an eye on the important Philly Fed report.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell on Wednesday, but managed to recoup most if its losses. The pair should attempt another decline today.
Immediate support is at 1.4640. Below 1.4615, there is further support at 1.4565.
Initial resistance comes at 1.4730. Above 1.4765, resistance remains at 1.4800 and 1.4835.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen is alternating up and down days, and Thursday should be the down day.
Initial support is now at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45. at 107.22. Distant support still looms at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot that targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Immediate resistance is at 108.60. The next resistance remains at 109.15.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar sank further on Wednesday, as expected, and hit a one-month low. Selling pressure should continue, but at a reduced pace.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9363. Below a pivotal low at 1.9338 there is distant support at 1.9197.
Initial resistance comes at 1.9470. A break above 1.9575 would signal a further recovery to 1.9680, but this is unlikely.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss is alternating up and down days, and Wednesday’s unexpected rally was confined to an inside range. Mixed to slightly lower trading is likely today.
Immediate support is seen at 1.0960. The next level is 1.0870. Below 1.0805, support is pegged at 1.0729 from a pivot low.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.1047. The next resistance remains at 1.1105.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish