Forex Market Commentary for February 27, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The stocks went up on Tuesday and the euro and pound followed, as expected. Only that all the other currencies followed as well, as the dollar was hurt by the weak housing and high inflation reports – not sure why the market acts surprised, but I appreciated the reaction. Expect more dollar weakness today.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged to a record high on Tuesday. This is good because my model remains long since February 14. The pair is slightly overbought, but sideways to higher trading is favored.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.5045. Above it, resistance comes at 1.5078. Distant resistance looms at 1.5165.
Immediate support moved up to 1.4970. The next level is 1.4865. Below 1.4790, there is further support at 1.4715. Distant support is at 1.4640.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell within an inside range on Tuesday. Mixed trading is likely today.
Immediate support comes at 107.25. Further support is at 106.75 from a 50-point pivot that targets 106.25 and 107.25.
Immediate resistance moved back to 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45. Strong resistance follows at 108.75. Distant resistance lies at 109.15 from a 50-point pivot that targets 109.65 and 108.65.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied on Tuesday to a 3 ½-week high and a break above 1.9820 warrants further strength. My model remains long since Thursday and the recovery should continue in the medium term.
Initial resistance comes at 1.9897. A break above this level would signal a further rally to 1.9935. This is followed by 1.9960 and 2.0035.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9750. The next level follows at 1.9645.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell to a 3 ½-week on Tuesday, and my model remains short. Mixed to lower trading is likely today.
Immediate support comes at 1.0706. Below 1.0620, support is pegged at 1.0510…
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0810. The next levels are 1.0870,.0960 and 1.1000. Distant resistance comes at 1.1065.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish