Forex Market Commentary for February 28, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar sank further on Wednesday amid additional soft US data, and this weakness was in line with expectations. Only GBP/USD reversed its early gains on demand for EUR/GBP. Expect the dollar to consolidate today.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar surged to a record high on Wednesday and this is good because my model remains long since February 14. The pair is slightly overbought, but sideways to higher trading is still favored.
Initial resistance now comes 1.5165. Above this, resistance is seen at 1.5325 and 1.5360.
Immediate support moved up further to 1.5055. Below 1.5005, there is further support at 1.4960. Distant support is at 1.4875.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen sank to a near three-week low on Wednesday before trimming losses. Mixed trading is likely today.
Immediate support comes at 105.95. Further support is at 105.50. A pivot low is at 104.98.
Immediate resistance moved down to 106.75 from a 50-point pivot that targets 106.25 and 107.25. Distant resistance looms at 107.95 from a 50-point pivot that targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied on Wednesday to the highest level of the year, but then reversed gains. My model remains long since Thursday, but I like to get square here.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9765. Below 1.9720, the next level follows at 1.9765.
Initial resistance comes at 1.9870. Only a break above 1.9971 would signal a further rally to 2.0035. This is followed by 2.0100.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with a bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell to a record low on Wednesday, and my model remains short. Mixed to lower trading is likely today.
Immediate support comes at 1.0560. Below 1.0515, support is pegged at 1.0400.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0680. The next level is 1.0730. Distant resistance comes at 1.0850.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish