Forex Market Commentary for March 6, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar ended lower on Wednesday after reversing early gains. AMBAC failed to provide a solid solution, while the data hardly helped; US companies lost 23,000 jobs in February, according to the ADP, while construction spending fell 1.7% in January. On this background, it came to no one’s surprise that the Fed’s beige book showed slower economic growth since the start of the year. The short and medium-term outlooks are bearish.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar reversed the expected losses and climbed to a new high for the uptrend. My model remains long since February 14 – no complaints here. Hold small long positions if you have tem
Initial resistance is at 1.5300. Above this pivot high, resistance comes at 1.5355 and 1.5380. Distant resistance is now seen at 1.5575.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.5215. The next level is 1.5160. Below 1.5105, there is further support at 1.5040.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen broke out from an inside range, as it reversed this week’s losses. Mixed trading is likely today– and the short-term bias remains up.
Immediate resistance is seen at 104.20. Strong resistance is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot that targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Support is now seen at 103.50. Below 103.15, distant support is at 102.30 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar reversed early losses in an aggressive manner and tested the top of its medium-term trading range. The strength will be confirmed only by a break above 2.0000.
So, initial resistance comes at 1.9971. A break above this pivotal level would signal another further rally above the 2 mark. This is followed by 2.0040.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9865. Below 1.9765, the next level follows at 1.9645.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss remains soft after remaining stuck in an inside range on Tuesday. My model remains short. Mixed trading is likely today.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.0335. Below 1.0290, support is now pegged at 1.0170.
Initial resistance remains at 1.0455. The next level is 1.0500. Above 1.0610, resistance comes at 1.0725.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish