GFT Daily Market Commentary

Forex Market Commentary for March 28, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary

The FX markets entered a period of consolidation and this means the dollar is all over the place. That place was slightly up on Thursday, but the dollar didn’t cut any new path. The pound rallied temporarily after Thomson’s bid for Reuters went through late Wednesday Again, the downtrend for the dollar has resumed, but expect further choppy trading.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar slipped on profit taking, but the medium term outlook is bullish as my model remains long. Expect another choppy attempt to pad its gains.

Initial resistance is at 1.5858. This is followed by 1.5904 from a pivot high. The next level is 1.5970. Distant resistance now comes at 1.6160.

Immediate support is seen at 1.5745. Below 1.5655, there is distant support at 1.5480.
Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen reversed from a one-week low to close slightly higher on Thursday. My model is long, but I remain square here because the risk is on the downside. Choppy to lower trading is likely today.
Initial support is still seen at 98.98. Below 98.57, distant support is at 98.10.
Immediate resistance remains at 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. This is followed by 101.25. The next level is seen at 101.90.
Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed with bearish bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar pulled back after nailing a nine-day high and my model remains long. I expect a choppy upmove today.

Initial resistance still comes at 2.0145. A break above 2.0205 would signal another further rally to the peak at 2.0397.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0020. Below 1.9955, the next level follows at 1. 9880. There is a pivot low at 1.9738.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss made a weak recovery on profit taking on Thursday. The medium term outlook remains is bearish but I prefer to be square here.

Immediate support is seen at 0.9883. This is followed by 0.9790. Below 0.9642, distant support is now pegged at 0.9500.
Initial resistance is seen at 0.9985. The next level is 1.0115. Further resistance is at 1.0200.

Oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish