Forex Market Commentary for April 7, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar ended generally lower on Friday after the non-farm payrolls came in weaker than expected. The dollar remains in a downtrend, but in the short term it should recover. There is no US data due for release today.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar climbed to a three-day high on Friday, as expected. My model remains short, and with the pair overbought, the next move should be down.
Immediate support is at 1.5625. Below it, euro/dollar has support at 1.5540. This is followed by 1.5340.
Initial resistance is at 1.5690. The next level is 1.5785.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen finally declined on Friday after surging earlier last week, but rallied in the Far East on Monday. My model remains long. The key level is 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80.
Immediate resistance is at 102.95. The next level is at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.
Initial support is at 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. This is followed by 101.25 from a 50-point pivot which targets 100.75 and 101.75.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar reversed early gains on Friday to close slightly lower. My model went short. I expect choppy to lower trading today.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9850. This is followed by 1.9800. Distant support is at 1.9740.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9940. There is a pivot high at 2.0046. This is followed by 2.0190.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss slipped on Friday and the medium-term outlook remains bearish. But the pair recovered in Asia and my model remains long.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0180. This is followed by 1.0251. The next level is 1.0375.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0060. The next support is at 0.9990. This is followed by 0.9875.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish