Forex Market Commentary for April 16, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar recovered versus the European currencies and against the yen on Tuesday. The Empire state economic report was positive and this provided false hope about the state of the US economy. My model went long dollars across the board. Expect choppy trading again, it’s too early to call the dollar up.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar made a weak inside range pullback but remains close to its record highs. My model went short. I prefer to be square here, as it remains uncomfortably high.
Immediate support is still at 1.5765. Below 1.5625, euro/dollar has distant support at 1.5540.
Initial resistance is at1.5825. The next levels are 1.5885 and 1.5914. Above them, resistance remains at 1.5985. Distant resistance is seen at 1.6040.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied on Tuesday and this prompted my model to go long! Expect another range-bound day.
Immediate resistance is at 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. The next level is at 102.95.
Good support is at 101.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75. At 100.25 there is another 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. This is followed by 99.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 98.75 and 99.75.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar sank broadly on Tuesday to reverse all of the Monday’s gains. My model is short again and the bias remains on the downside.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9595. This is followed by 1.9504. Distant support is at 1.9370.
Initial resistance is at 1.9695. Above 1.8750 there is a pivot high at 1.9842 and another one at 2.0046.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss rallied on Tuesday and my model went long. Choppy trading is favored today as well, and the upside is initially preferred.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0105. Above it, there is resistance at 1.0140 and 1.0190. This is followed by 1.0251.
Immediate support is seen at 1.0060. The next one is at 0.9965. This is followed by 0.9875. Support is then pegged at 0.9790.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish