Forex Market Commentary for April 18, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar closed higher on Thursday against all majors, save the pound, amid renewed hope the worst is over in the US financial disaster; keep on hoping. Cable rose after a UK Treasury source said authorities could announce as early as next week details of a plan to alleviate tight conditions in the UK mortgage market. I’m not sure that the dollar bottomed yet, so jab the market until confirmation comes your way.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar made a mild decline from a new record high and my model is about to get short. I prefer to remain square, and join only under a break below 1.5830.
So, good support is seen at 1.5830. Below 1.5810, euro/dollar has support at 1.5750. Distant support is at 1.5670.
Initial resistance is at 1.5950. The next level is still in place at 1.6040. Distant resistance is now seen at 1.6185.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied on Thursday and my model remains long. Expect another range-bound day, as the highs are a tad too high.
Immediate and very resilient resistance is still seen at 102.80. The next level is at 103.40. Distant resistance is at 104.20.
Good support is at 102.30 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. At 101.25 there is another 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied big on Thursday and closed above the resistance from its declining trendline. My model went long and for as long as 1.9853 holds, the upside is in good shape. But the initial move should be down.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.9853. This is followed by 1.9795. Below 1.9695, distant support is at 1.9597 from a pivot low.
Initial resistance is at 1.9995. Above 2.0046 there is a pivot high at 2.0192.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss is alternating up and down day, and its gains on Thursday were confined to an inside range. My model remains long. Choppy trading is favored today as well, and the downside is initially preferred.
Immediate support is seen at 1.0015. This is followed by 0.9965 and 0.9875. Distant support is then pegged at 0.9790.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0105. Above it, there is resistance at 1.0140 and 1.0190. This is followed by 1.0251.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish