Forex Market Commentary for April 21, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
Once again, the dollar closed higher on Friday against all majors, save the pound, amid budding hopes that the worst is over in the US financial disaster; it’s premature. Cable marched higher on the wings of Thursday’s gains. Again, I’m not sure that the dollar has bottomed yet, so jab the market until confirmation comes your way.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell sharply on Friday and my model went short. Even though it trimmed losses, the close below 1.5830 suggests more weakness.
Initial support is seen at 1.5780. Below 1.5715, euro/dollar has support at 1.5670. Distant support is at 1.5590.
Initial resistance is at 1.5860. Above 1.5950, the next level is still in place at 1.6040. Distant resistance is now seen at 1.6185.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen surged to the highest level since the end of February and my system is long. The risk is now on the upside.
Immediate resistance is at 104.64. The next levels are at 105.20 and 105.50. Distant resistance is at 107.45.
Initial support is at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied on Friday as well. My model is long and for as long as 1.9853 holds, the upside is in good shape. But the initial move should be down.
Initial resistance now comes at 2.0000. There is a pivot high at 2.0046. This is followed by 2.0190.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9920. This is followed by 1.9860.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss rallied to its highest level since March 12 and my model is long. Choppy trading with upside bias is expected again.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0250. This is followed by 1.0283. The next level is 1.0375.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0090. This is followed by 0.9965 and .9875.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish