Forex Market Commentary for April 25, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The Ifo was really nasty and the euro really overbought, so the dollar surged on Thursday. The oil fell for a while and this got people excited, but let’s face it: it remains in stratosphere. The dollar should slow down its gains and then consolidate on Monday.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar fell sharply after the Ifo report and gave back 23.6% of the uptrend since February 7. It’s premature to call the end of the uptrend while the ECB talk non-sense about hiking rates. My model remains short but the selling pressure should decelerate.
Initial support is seen at 1.5637. Below 1.5570, euro/dollar has distant support is at 1.5363.
Above 1.5760, the next level is 1.5850. Distant resistance is still seen at 1. 6080.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied on Thursday as well to close at the highest level since late February, but remained within last Friday’s range. My system is long. Today should see mild strength.
Immediate resistance is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. Distant resistance is at 106.50.
Initial support is at 103.80. The next level is 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90…
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar stumbled on Thursday as well, and with my model short, this was fine. The initial move should still be down.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9690. This is followed by 1.9595. Distant support looms at 1.9365.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9760. This is followed by 1.9840. Above 1.9910 there is a pivot high at 2.0025.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss surged to a 1 ½-month high on Thursday and my model remains long. Choppy trading with upside bias is expected today as well.
Initial resistance now comes right at Thursday’s high at 1.0385. If the trendline gives way, look for a test at 1.0440. This is followed by 1.0545. Distant resistance looms at 1.0620.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0285. Good support follows at 1.0200. This is followed by 1.0115.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish