Forex Market Commentary for April 28, 2008 by Cornelius Luca
GFT Daily Market Commentary
Dollar struggled higher versus the euro, franc and yen, but slumped versus the pound. Crosses came to the forefront, with the euro crosses stumbling – and remaining on their way down. The oil price rallied on cue, as adverse events appeared on cue, as not allow for hope to even a return to $100/barrel. The dollar should consolidate on Monday and slowly ease later in the week.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar added to its Thursday’s losses but at much slower pace. Again, it’s premature to call the end of the major uptrend, and the initial bias is up. My model remains short but the selling pressure should decelerate. Don’t leave your guard down, this pair may still bounce.
Initial resistance is at 1.5680. The next level is 1.5760. Distant resistance is at 1.5820.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.5600. The next level is 1.5556. Below the important level at 1.5480, euro/dollar has support at 1.5415.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen struggled higher last week, but managed to finally exit from an inside range to reach a two-month high. My system is long. Today should see consolidation, as the risk on the upside looks limited.
Immediate resistance is at 105.00. The next levels remain at 105.20 and 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Initial support is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. Strong support follows at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied on Friday due to sales in euro/sterling and demand from an M&A, and with my model was forced to go long. The initial move should be up.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9815. This is followed by 1.9760.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9865. The next level is 1.9915. Above 2.0000, there is a pivot high at 2.0046. Distant resistance looms at 2.0190.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss climbed to a seven-week high of 1.0430 on Friday and my model remains long. However, choppy trading with only some upside bias is expected today.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0430. This is followed by 1.0550. Distant resistance now comes at 1.0625.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0260. This is followed by 1.0185. Support is then pegged at 1.0135.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish