Forex Market Commentary for May 12, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar fell across the board on Friday, as expected, and even the battered cable managed to mot close down. The US currency should edge lower today as well.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar rallied on Friday after forming a hammer on Thursday. My model remains short but the short-term outlook is bullish.
Initial resistance is at 1.5545. Above 1.5600, euro/dollar retains additional resistance at 1.5685.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.5415. This is followed by 1.5287. Below 1.5230, euro/dollar still has support at 1.5150.
Oscillators are bullish.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen suffered further sharp losses on Friday. My model went short and this is OK.
Initial support is at 102.30 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 101.80 and 102.80. Distant support is at 101.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75.
Immediate resistance is at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90. Next strong barrier looms at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar consolidated further near a 2 ½-month low. My system remains short, but the short-term outlook is slightly bullish.
Initial resistance still comes at 1.9585. Above 1.9690, there is distant resistance at 1.9840.
Below 1.9495, support remains at 1.9410. This is followed by 1.9363. Distant support looms at 1.9185.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell further on Friday and formed a short term double top. My model went short. But the pair is overbought and the short-term outlook remains slightly bearish.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0350. This is followed by 1.0300. Support is then still pegged at 1.0255.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0440. If this close level gives way, expect a test of 1.0550.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with downside risk
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish