Forex Market Commentary for May 15, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar ended little changed on Wednesday after giving up early gains and after being told we have limited inflation to worry about. There is a series of US reports today, so expect choppy trading. The US currency has upside bias.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar recouped early losses to close flat on Wednesday, but remained in an inside range. My model remains short, but only a close below 1.5394 would encourage the bearish outlook.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.5432. Strong support then comes at 1.5394. Below 1.5365, distant support follows 1.5287.
Initial resistance is at 1.5505. Above 1.5600, euro/dollar retains additional resistance at 1.5685.
Oscillators are bearish.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied on Wednesday to a one-week high on Wednesday and my model remains long. Well, the upside still looks limited, but I’d sell dollars only on a stop.
Strong resistance remains at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Initial support is now at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. Distant support moved up to 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed with upside bias
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar recovered from a new low for the downtrend to close unchanged on Wednesday. My system remains short, and the short-term outlook is slightly bearish. The pound suffers amide fears of stagflation in the UK.
Immediate support is at 1.9455. Below 1.9363, support remains at 1.9273. Distant support looms at 1.9220 and 1.9185.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9515. The next levels are 1.9580 and 1.9635. Above 1.9690, there is distant resistance at 1.9840.
Oscillators are bearish.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly lower
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss gave up most of its gains on Wednesday, but my model remains long. I still need more proof that this upmove is here to stay.
Initial resistance remains at 1.0570. If this close level gives way, expect a test of 1.0622. Distant resistance is at 1.0745.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.0480. This is followed by 1.0445, 1.0410 and 1.0300. Distant support is then pegged at 1.0255.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish