Forex Market Commentary for June 9, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar collapsed on Friday. Not only that the US unemployment figures were a(n apparent) disaster, but Israel warning to Iraq and EBS threat to hike rates all conspired to boost the oil and destroy the US currency. Monday should see some reprieve, by the outlook is negative.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar exploded higher on Friday and closed above the trendline of its channel declining since May 27. More general strength is likely.
Initial resistance is at 1.5817. Above it, euro/dollar retains additional resistance at 1.5930. Further resistance is then seen at 1.6020.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.5740. Strong support follows at 1.5650. The next level is 1.5565.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
One day after nailing a 3 ½-month high, dollar/yen fell and formed a bearish reversal. My model went short and more weakness is likely.
Strong support is seen at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00.
Immediate resistance is at 105.00. The next level is 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar rallied sharply on Friday to enhance previous day’s recovery. Of course, it looks more like an intermediate bullish reversal and my model is long.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9745. Above the pivot high at 1.9850, there is further resistance at 1.9960.
Immediate support is still seen at 1.9640. The next level is 1.9585.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell to the lowest level since April 24 and broke the bottom of a triangle. More weakness is in store while the oil is up and the Middle East is uttering bellicose words.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0135. This is followed by 1.0015. Distant support is at .9985.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0250. This is followed by 1.0325.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish