Forex Market Commentary for October 16 2008 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The collapse in the US stock indices that obliterated the large, but fleeting, gains on Monday and the weak US data that highlighted the economic abyss we have entered sent the commodity and Scandinavian currencies down. The European currencies followed, while the yen gained on sales of yen crosses. Expect more of the same today.
Euro/dollar
The euro/dollar fell on Wednesday my model went short. The bias remains bearish.
Immediate support is at 1.3375. Below 1.3261, support comes at 1.3040.
Initial resistance comes at 1.3515. This is still followed by 1.3615 and 1.3765.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen fell sharply on Wednesday and my model went short. The downside remains favored. The medium-term outlook is bearish.
Good support comes at 99.25 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 98.75 and 99.75. The next level is 98.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 97.75 and 98.75.
Immediate resistance is at 100.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 99.75 and 100.75. The next level is 101.25 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 100.75 and 101.75.
Oscillators are bearish.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar sank on Wednesday and my model went short. The downside remains favored.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.7120. The next level is 1.6975. Distant support is at 1.6790.
Initial resistance is at 1.7230. Good resistance follows at 1.7310. Distant resistance is now seen at 1.7630.
Oscillators are bullish.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss fell on Wednesday in an inside range and my model remains short. The medium-term risk remains on the upside.
Initial resistance is still pegged at 1.1390. The next levels are 1.1412 and 1.1605 from a pivot high.
Immediate support is at 1.1310. The next level is 1.1240. Below 1.1140, support is seen at 1.1055.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish