GFT Daily Market Commentary

Forex Market Commentary for November 12, 2007 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary

As energy costs surge, financial firms’ write-off huge subprime mortgage-related losses and shaky US equity markets, the dollar got hit on Friday in a selective fashion. The carry trades took a hit, with the high-yielding currencies down and the yen up. The appetite for risk is clearly diminishing but it’s premature to call for their demise. Monday should be quiet because of the holidays in the US and Canada, but this week should see further pressure on the carry trades.

Euro/dollar

Euro/dollar closed flat after nailing another lifetime high on Friday. Monday should see further selling pressure.

Initial support is at 1 1.4580. Below 1.4545, euro/dollar has 1.4490. Distant support comes at 1.4415.

Immediate resistance is at 1.46375. Above 1.4737, resistance is still seen at 1.4755. Distant resistance is seen at 1.4890.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/yen

Dollar/yen plunged to a 1 ½-year low on Friday. Expect more weakness but at a reduced pace. The pair triggered a bearish flag on Wednesday that targets 110.05.
Initial support now comes at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot that targets 109.85 and 110.85.
Immediate resistance is at 111.60 which is also a 50-point pivot, which targets 112.10 and 111.10. Above 112.40 resistance follows at 112.90 from a 50-point pivot that targets 113.40 and 112.40.
Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed

Sterling/dollar

Sterling/dollar formed a bearish reversal after plunging from a new 26-year high. Since this high yielding is still overbought, as slide to 2.0700 is quite likely. The downside is favored here.
Immediate support is still seen at 2.0780. Next level is at 2.0670.
Initial resistance is at 2.0880. The next level is 2.0970.
Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish

Dollar/Swiss franc

Dollar/Swiss collapsed to a new low for the downtrend. The oversold currency should recover today.

Initial resistance is at 1.1280. The next level is 1.1335. Above 1.1400, there is resistance at 1.1530.
Below 1.1189, support is now pegged at 1.1100. Distant support is at 1.0980.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bearish