Forex Market Commentary for November 23, 2007 by Cornelius LucaGFT Daily Market Commentary
The dollar marked time during Thanksgiving, but all eyes should be on the carry trades. This means dollar/yen should encounter further selling pressure. The European currencies should struggle higher as well.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar edged up to a new record on Thursday. It should make only a brief pullback before the next move up.
Strong resistance remains at 1.4925. This is followed by 1.5000. Distant resistance is now pegged at 1.5130.
Initial support is at 1.4777. The next floor is at 1.4700. This is followed by 1.4635 and 1.4560.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen kept near the 2 ½-low it hit on Wednesday and the selling pressure should persist because of long liquidation of carry trades.
With the pivot at 109.15 out of the way, strong support now comes at 107.95 from another 50-point pivot; targets 107.45 and 108.45. This is followed by 106.90.
Strong resistance now moved down to 109.15 from another 50-point pivot that targets 109.65 and 108.65. Above 109.65, distant resistance follows at 110.35 from a 50-point pivot that targets 109.85 and 110.85.
Oscillators are declining.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar managed edged lower on Thanksgiving. Sideways to higher trading is likely today.
Above 2.0700, resistance remains at 2.0795. Above it there is resistance at 2.0840. Distant resistance looms at 2.0980.
Immediate support is seen at 2.0590. Below 2.0520, the next floors are at 2.0455 and eventually at 2.0315.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss remains weak after sinking to its lowest level since currencies were allowed to float freely. It is oversold, but the pair should edge further down today.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0980. Below it, support is pegged at 1.0925. Distant support moved down to 1.0875.
Initial resistance is at 1.1040. This is followed by 1.1110. The next levels are 1.1195 and 1.1260.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bearish
LONG-TERM: Bearish