Forex Market Commentary for May 5, 2008 by Cornelius LucaGGFT Daily Market Commentary
A better than expected non-farm payrolls report lifted the dollar further on Friday. The upmove should pause only briefly, but expect choppy trading today.
Euro/dollar
Euro/dollar collapsed to a near three-week low on Friday and my model remains short.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.5362. Below 1.5230, euro/dollar has distant support at 1.5150.
Initial resistance is at 1.5485. The next level is 1.5540. Above 1.5600, euro/dollar has additional resistance at 1.5685.
Oscillators are falling.
NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish
Dollar/yen
Dollar/yen rallied to an over two-month high on Friday and my model is long. But the upmove should slow down.
Immediate resistance is at 105.60 from a 50-point pivot that targets 105.10 and 106.10. The next level is at 107.45. Above the 106.75 50-point pivot, which targets 106.25 and 107.25, distant resistance is at 107.95 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 107.45 and 108.45.
Initial support is at 104.50 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 104.00 and 105.00. Strong support is at 103.40 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 102.90 and 103.90.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed to slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish
Sterling/dollar
Sterling/dollar fell on Friday to close for two days in the same direction! But the pair remained within recent ranges. My model is now short. The initial move should be up, though.
Immediate support is seen at 1.9690. This is followed by 1.9624. Below 1.9597, distant support is 1.9495.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.9760. Above 1.9885, there is a pivot high at 2.0046.
Oscillators are mixed.
NEAR-TERM: Mixed
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Mixed
Dollar/Swiss franc
Dollar/Swiss marched higher for the second day on Friday. My model is long and the medium-term outlook is bullish.
Initial resistance now comes at 1.0623. This is followed by 1.0795. Distant resistance now comes at 1.0855.
Immediate support is now seen at 1.0465. This is followed by 1.0375. Support is then pegged at 1.0255.
Oscillators are rising.
NEAR-TERM: Bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Bullish
LONG-TERM: Bearish