Virtually all the retail shop order books will tell a similar story Saul, & it’s not just confined to EURJPY over the past few sessions either.
The majority are biased short in CADJPY & NZDJPY too & have been increasing that exposure as the week unfolds.
Similar story on GBPUSD. They’ve either been setting long orders and/or betting long all week from Tuesday/Wednesday & their stops (those who have actually bothered to place them) have been melting like ice in a heatwave.
The few trading the correct way have, as usual, been making hay & will continue to until the trending tanks runs out of gas or the momentum flattens out.
Yep, as old as the market itself. Wyckoff wrote about it 100 years ago, it’s a case of the Monte Carlo fallacy, “it’s gone up so much it just HAS to come back”.
Some of you guys will know the story about the master trader teaching his apprentice - price was rising and the master was still buying. ‘How much more will you continue to buy?’ asked the apprentice with surprise. ‘Until it reaches the moon’ was the reply.
If you haven’t already done so, dial back a page Saul & re-read post #92.
He posted that up nearly 2 weeks ago & it is an absolute perfect example & representation of what’s played out on the 4 pairs he mentioned in his last post.
It’ll make you smile as well as encourage folks to concentrate on the stuff that [B]really[/B] makes a difference out there!!
What edge will retail broker’s net long v shorts stats give you? Isn’t the objective to [B][I]“keep it simple” and not “over complicate that which is essentially uncomplicated”. [/I][/B]
Seems to me adding retail net long v short studies is just adding a layer of unnecessary decoding.
Fortunately I’ve been lucky to latch onto stuff like Andy’s 3 Ducks & these guys posts early into my forum life so have avoided getting bogged down in the array of long winded guru threads & flitting from one pointless method to another which has encouraged me to resist loading up multiple layers of confirmatory technical & fundamental analysis to my trade plan.
So in that respect I suppose I’ve saved myself an enormous amount of wasted time.
As I mentioned in an earlier post, logical analysis such as casting a lazy eye over my opponents (herds) positioning, not only makes sense but helps to confirm that by continuing to obey & respect a visible trend, I’m facing the right way & not overcomplicating or misreading my view of the markets current pulse.
As they have evidenced, the majority of our opponents are wrong most of the time & it stands to reason if they’re immersing themselves in the types of analysis being presented by these gurus, then they are the very threads I should be actively avoiding.
I’m gradually realising that simple, uncluttered frameworks like Andy’s tiered top-down momentum approach coupled with a simple trigger as suggested by these guys, can get the job done a lot more efficiently than ploughing through reams & reams of unnecessary technical & fundamental analysis.
I think the paragraph below hits the spot far better than I can convey it.
I’m going to do as he suggests because coupled with their other comments & the freely available information, it makes much more sense to me than any of the stuff the losing camp seem to place their trust in.
It is easy to make money in forex and much easier to lose the same. There are times I had 5k losses in series of trades and made the same in next few trades. As long as a trader has right mindset and equity to trade, that trader can make money eventually. Again it all depends on mind games, not on trading systems. And those mind games are so toxic, to tell you the truth. Withstanding those needs a great temperament and mental strength.
Judging by your comment, you seem to already be aware of the general types of threads I’m referring to Kevin
Casually perusing the forum network every couple of months is enough to see the majority of participants involved in these high profile technical analysis threads are struggling & continue to tread water long after subscribing to them.
Match that evidence up with the woeful failure statistics regularly distributed by the broker shops & it doesn’t take a genius to conclude that what they’re doing simply isn’t working over the medium to long haul. So if it’s not, then why would I (or anyone else) choose to follow them down that route?
I’m sure you see the same things I do when browsing these forums. Pages of impressively presented charts & commentary, multiple confirmation, inter-market analysis, horizontal & angular lines, fibonacci, elliot waves, volume bars, supply & demand zones, pretty pattern formations etc etc etc.
If it was that good then why aren’t any of these “popular & high profile” guru threads presenting handfuls of followers proudly displaying their success stories & supposedly impressive percentage returns via fxbooks & broker statement history logs?
There’s a never ending supply of perfectly formed hindsight set ups & lots of talk about 150, 200 & 300 pip profit grabs, but never any documentary proof.
Never.
The majority of typical forum members follow the same tired old regurgitated conventiional advice & claim it’s all so wonderful & consistently profitable. If that’s the case then why do the industry (retail broker) statistics paint a very contradictory & completely opposite picture?
I don’t buy it & never really have.
What I’m beginning to buy however is the subtle & more logical message these very unpopular guys on this thread are advising & recommending.
They’re certainly hitting a few very raw nerves, certainly with their recent contributions, & it’s interesting to see the reactions from some of the herd who are obviously very heavily invested in these commonly held beliefs that have been instilled by supposed “successful mentors, education information peddlers & authors”
Okay, im not gonna re-post my demo growing in eight months from 4k to 21 minus open trades by the end of the year i guess i’ll be somewhere between 15 and 20k in eight months.
Now lets get to the motivational speech :
if you think like that , you probably should quit, your self-fulfilling prophecy alone will kill you
if you see it as trading from home in your jammies, you probably should quit since its not trading from home in your jammies, even if you might, its trading from sundaynight sydney open to fridaynight newyork close with very little sleep in between. It’s not hunting for the get rich quick and the five trades a year that make you double your capital. Its building compound intrest over time in very small amounts it turns exponential but as you know if you see an exponential curve, before you get to the turn where it shoots up, it’s a very, very, very slow slope, yes?
i think you misquote, i think its only 1% who succeed in making it big. Now what is big ? No forex trader made it billgates big or warren-big so far i think. What is big ? Whats a dayjob worth ? if you can make 1500 a month
in your jammies as you eloquently call it will you slave for a boss being on the road every day for 10 or maybe 10 or 14 hours, getting paid for eight, and making what ? 500 more ? 1000 ?
and so on, there must be something with this 1% thats a fibonacci level in society. Those statistics speak of people making it big without giving numbers on how big. They dont speak of people making good money on the side or whatever. Or people making enough to come by and live good, right ?
and so on … if you believe you can’t do it, you’re already dead, so to speak, its no offense, but if you think like that you [B]should[/B] probably keep it as a hobby and suck up whatever **** your boss rams down your throat every day.
It’s possible, but its not a cakewalk and you wont get there in one straight line up. But, see the thing is, if there’s only 1% that means there [B]IS[/B] 1% who do it, which means [B]it can be done[/B]
so, not by everyone, i betcha Tim Cook would make a lousy car-mechanic, and mark zuckerberg wouldnt last five minutes stitching jeans together
so to speak … nor would warren buffet last long in construction work
It can be done, and its only a few and if you dont believe in yourself you’re definitely not gonna
so if you dont, save yourself the time and trouble, and keep it as a lottery with more chance of winning you throw a hundred at every week in your spare time or something
pardon my french if you’ll excuse me but as i predicted too many years in a place where ambition is a dirty word and lack of sleep because its not a nine to five and other than you, sir,
where you see the 99% who fail as something that makes it impossible, i see the 1% who dont as something that proves IT CAN BE DONE,
now, don’t take it personal, im developing some kind of steve-jobs-class patience, blame it on the place they suck me in. Maybe by next year i’ll be happy no one thought me good enough to get a ****ing part time job. But theres other secrets to success, if you make your first 5000 starting from 500 or a 150 or whatever, you dont go out and snort it all up with a few callgirls, you buy a nice bottle of sake, some new
jammies (lol sorry) and you invest the other 4000 after buying a fridge full of food
if you make 10 you dont lease a ferrari right away, who the **** said anything can be done by anyone , thats like saying everyone is born equal, right?
seriously man, if you think like that, its not gonna end well, but if you’re overconfident its not gonna end well either.
not personal, just my 5 cents, however my five cents always turn into 10 by the next day somehow if everyone just gets the **** off my back, you know why ? cos i’m the boss (lol)
you buy a ticket to that james brown movie, and ask yourself where he would have gotten if he listened to what other people said he should. You gotta find that out for yourself man. If this doesnt make you happy, if you get a cup of coffee when you wake up before you check your open positions, if it doesnt make you feel comfortable, then please don’t torture yourself. It’s about getting by, not about getting rich in the first place and its about feeling you’re doing something you’re good at and much much more, as with every full time
‘occupation’
jammies or not whatever you choose to do in life, you gotta believe in it, so whatever you choose, best of luck (except if its getting in my way cos thats not gonna end well for one of us
just joking right … the last part im not making threats here, i know some people call the swat team right away on a suspicion, no need. Just pick your part in life. There’s no good or evil, there’s the path you choose and the importance is trying to ride it to perfection, not what anyone thinks about it or ‘how it should be done’
I don’t agree. The trouble is that most traders have never learned how to trade. The non-trader who buys and holds stocks usually makes money because companies expand by roughly 6% per year. However, most people who try to ‘trade’ in and out of stocks (or any market) lose money. Even so… there is always a % of traders who do make money consistently trading in and out. The traders who lose money are typically traders who have never taken the time to develop and TEST an actual trading system. Those who do develop and test systems tend to win consistently with no secret ‘information advantage’ or ‘luck’. Unfortunately the group of winners remains small because most people are not willing to do the difficult and time consuming task of developing and testing a system they can trust. Most traders just ‘wing it’ trading manually and sporadically trying all kinds of different trading methods without testing them thoroughly first. Their emotions rule not only their exit decisions, but their entry decisions.
How long have you been consistently profitable trading this style, approach, system or method.
I would like to see documentary evidence of this success via your broker’s trade statements/blotters or a third party independent verification access.
A few weeks ago when these famous “two questions” popped up on the babypip’s site, I laughed at them. I guess it’s time for me to add my two cents. (or, maybe time for me to shut-up and just move along) :56:
I believe some of the advocates asking the “two questions” have many years of experience in the FX industry. But I also suspect they have limited hands-on-experience actually trading as “DIY retail” traders.
Over the years I’ve found their advice valuable, but in this case I’ll suggest their advice is somewhat “theoretical and academic” and not sure it’s practical. Perhaps an appropriate metaphor would be giving advice about combat, they say you really need to have been there.
I believe the challenge for “DIY retail” traders is to [B]adapt and adjust your trading style to match market conditions and behaviors.[/B] Not to be looking for and believing there’s a system/method that will produce long-term month over month consistent profits.
If you were to read and study some of the more popular system threads on the babypip’s site, I believe for the most part, you’ll find that a lot of them have and will produce positive results when matched with the proper market conditions. And then the exact same system will turn and cut your account to shreds when the market conditions change.
I suspect if a “DIY retail” guru were to show up with evidence of multi-year month over month consistent success, you’d find that to achieve the long-term success they needed to deploy 3, 4 or maybe more very different strategies, styles, and methods matching the conditions of the market over the documented multi-year period. What they did last month to be successful might be very different to what they need to do this month.
Again, I believe the challenge for “DIY retail” traders (I know it’s been my greatest challenge) is to [B]adapt and adjust our trading style to match market conditions and behavior[/B]. My suggestion, spend less time trying to find a “system” that produces consistent success and more time figuring out and studying [B]what’s appropriate for the current market conditions.[/B]
I originally followed this thread for humor, a handful of negative people trying to out do each other as to how to go broke or quit. Then I decided to stop because I didn’t find any value to keep following. They weren’t funny anymore, but sad to go through life like that. You’re right with your analysis, no definitions of success or anything else, just how to quit. Great post. Best wishes and continued success
Gp
You won’t get any arguments from me on that score man.
I might not agree with certain other views in your post, but then I don’t have to, as don’t you where my comments are concerned.
You’re one of the smarter individuals contributing on here & I for one always enjoy reading your posts. You also hang out on [B]the[/B] coolest thread on the forum which enhances your rep!
I respectfully disagree. System traders are among the most successful traders in the world. A robust automated trading system should be able to adjust itself to changing market conditions. There are not that many conditions. There is up, down and sideways - so it can be done. Systems typically fail because they have not been tested properly and/or have not been built with the ability to adapt to changing market conditions. Anyone who trades manually or turns his automated system off and on, does not have a system. He has a methodology. It is nearly impossible to thoroughly test a methodology. Most traders who claim to have systems only have methodologies. Unfortunately, many traders who actually do have systems do not test them properly nor build them to be adaptive. But… that does not mean there are no great systems. There are, but you have to build one yourself. No one will give you a truly great EA. Ever.
D-pip is right, especially in the highlighted remarks.
I watched a trader on Zulu, he fascinated me with his trading style, he went to no. 4 on that site.
Then the asset he was trading changed, the trading style that he had relied on for over 12 months didn’t, he quickly went to obscurity with all sorts of warnings on the account of reckless trading detected.
The meltdown took about 8 weeks, he kept commenting that all would come right in the end, that his system was successful this past 4 years.
Maybe it was, I certainly saw it’s success for the year that I saw it in action, but the change in market conditions quickly brought it to an end - some of his followers were warning of the change, but he stuck to the system, that’s what he had been taught.
