Global Market Analysis By zForex

[ZforexCM]

Asia’s Property Sector Concerns, Earnings Disappointments in Europe, and Global Interest Rate Trends

In Asia, concerns in the property sector caused declines in Chinese shares, and there were announcements of investigations into Foxconn Technology Group. At the beginning of Asian trading, the yen slipped to 150.11.

European stocks declined due to disappointing earnings, particularly from Volkswagen and Royal Philips. Treasuries and oil prices also fell. The US 10-year note yield increased to 4.98%, while oil dropped to $87 per barrel, and gold fell from a five-month high.

Traders were closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, which included the release of US hostages by Hamas and aid reaching Gaza through Egypt. However, Israel continued air raids on Gaza in preparation for the next phase of its conflict with Hamas.

During this week, traders were seeking hints regarding global interest rates, which included inflation data from Australia and Japan, as well as economic activity data from the US and Europe. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was scheduled to give remarks, and the European Central Bank was set to make a policy decision later in the week.

Higher bond yields are posing challenges for equity valuations and may impact companies reporting earnings this week, such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Intel, IBM, General Motors, and General Electric. No major data releases are scheduled for the day.

[ZforexCM]

The Impact of Rising Treasury Yields on the US Stock Market

US stock market has been experiencing a decline for the last two weeks, with all major indices falling. The decline can be attributed to the influence of US treasuries, which are contributing to a risk-off sentiment. Higher Treasury yields can curb investors’ appetite for stocks and other risky assets by tightening financial conditions as they raise the cost. The stock market has been under pressure from the bond market, where the yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly touched 5% Thursday evening for the first time since 2007. High yields make borrowing more expensive for everyone, and they slow the economy while dragging on prices for stocks and other investments. The role played by earnings should intensify this week as some of the tech giants step up to bat. 2023 has seen an overreliance upon a handful of names to drive market upside, with speculation over potential AI revenues helping to lift valuations. Elevated treasury yields continue to put downward pressure on stock valuations. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note topped 5% early Monday, reclaiming a peak seen last week which marks the highest point for the yield benchmark since 2007. The week ahead will be busy for markets, with earnings due from Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms. The market was quick to react to this somewhat hawkish Fed outlook. Treasury yields moved sharply higher, as both the 2-year and 10-year yields moved to highs of this cycle, putting downward pressure on stock and bond returns. Longer-duration parts of the market, including technology and growth sectors, underperformed the broader market.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have been a cause of concern for investors in the US stock market. The Israeli-Hamas war has sharpened focus on rising geopolitical risks for financial markets, as investors wait to see if the conflict draws in other nations. In the past week, concerns about the conflict have fed through to asset prices, contributing to weakness in stocks. Safe-haven assets saw buying with gold ended the week up with more than 2.5%.

[ZforexCM]

Global Markets React to Business Activity Data and Economic Uncertainty

Asian-Pacific markets recovered from earlier losses, driven by the evaluation of private business activity surveys in Japan and Australia, along with South Korea’s October producer price index. European markets cautiously opened higher on Tuesday, with investors monitoring the latest Eurozone business activity data.

In Japan, flash estimates from au Jibun Bank revealed a contraction in business activity in October, marking the first decline since December 2022. The composite purchasing managers index dropped to 49.9 from 52.1 in September, primarily due to a sharper decline in manufacturing activity. Australia also witnessed a decline in business activity, hitting a 21-month low in October, as reported by Juno Bank. The composite purchasing manager’s index fell to 47.3 from 51.5 the previous month, with manufacturing PMI at a six-month low of 48.0 and services PMI at a 10-month low of 47.6.

Meanwhile, Treasuries are bouncing back after prominent market bears warned of an economic slowdown, raising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The erratic swings in government debt are unsettling investors due to the challenge of predicting when the Fed will halt rate hikes amid a resilient economy.

Preliminary Eurozone purchasing manager’s index data for October is eagerly awaited, providing insights into the performance of the manufacturing and services sectors.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, started the week trading above the critical $30,000 resistance level, building on gains from the previous week, driven by optimism about the potential launch of the first spot Bitcoin ETF and a flight to safety.

[ZforexCM]

China’s Property Market Woes: Implications for Economic Recovery and Global Growth

China’s economy faces significant challenges, especially in the housing market. Historically, the real estate sector has been a major contributor, accounting for up to 30% of the economy. However, it has struggled for over two years due to a government-initiated crackdown on developer borrowing. Property investments dropped by 9.1% in the first nine months of 2023, indicating worsening investor sentiment. Although GDP growth exceeded expectations, reaching 4.9% in Q3 2023, driven by consumer spending, the ongoing fragility of the property sector impedes China’s economic rebound.

Although easing policies reduced buying costs, they failed to generate new demand, and support measures haven’t significantly boosted confidence among buyers. New home prices in China fell for the third consecutive month in September, down 0.2% from August, traditionally a peak home buying period. Recent data also shows double-digit declines in property sales and investments, indicating ongoing economic challenges.

As of 2020, the property sector has played a substantial role in the Chinese economy, representing roughly 70% of household wealth. However, its contribution to local government income dropped from over 40% to 37% in 2022. Capital Economics estimates a 4.3% contraction in China’s net household wealth in 2022, primarily due to falling home prices and stock market performance.

The Chinese government has implemented numerous stimulus measures, such as cutting mortgage rates and lifting home purchase restrictions, but these efforts haven’t led to a sustained market recovery. The IMF warns that China’s property downturn will impact global growth prospects.

Addressing the real estate issue requires a comprehensive strategy, including ensuring that pre-financed houses are constructed, as most new homes in China are sold before being built. Fixing the property sector is likely to be a multi-year or even decade-long endeavor.

China’s rapid urbanization over the past decade is slowing down, and property market woes have eroded consumer confidence. Troubles at property giants like Evergrande and Country Garden, burdened by debt, contribute to these challenges.

Reducing the dominance of the Chinese property sector can have positive implications for the country’s future economic stability.

[ZforexCM]

Global Markets React to Business Activity Data and Economic Uncertainty

Asian-Pacific markets recovered from earlier losses, driven by the evaluation of private business activity surveys in Japan and Australia, along with South Korea’s October producer price index. European markets cautiously opened higher on Tuesday, with investors monitoring the latest Eurozone business activity data.

In Japan, flash estimates from au Jibun Bank revealed a contraction in business activity in October, marking the first decline since December 2022. The composite purchasing managers index dropped to 49.9 from 52.1 in September, primarily due to a sharper decline in manufacturing activity. Australia also witnessed a decline in business activity, hitting a 21-month low in October, as reported by Juno Bank. The composite purchasing manager’s index fell to 47.3 from 51.5 the previous month, with manufacturing PMI at a six-month low of 48.0 and services PMI at a 10-month low of 47.6.

Meanwhile, Treasuries are bouncing back after prominent market bears warned of an economic slowdown, raising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The erratic swings in government debt are unsettling investors due to the challenge of predicting when the Fed will halt rate hikes amid a resilient economy.

Preliminary Eurozone purchasing manager’s index data for October is eagerly awaited, providing insights into the performance of the manufacturing and services sectors.

Bitcoin, on the other hand, started the week trading above the critical $30,000 resistance level, building on gains from the previous week, driven by optimism about the potential launch of the first spot Bitcoin ETF and a flight to safety.

[ZforexCM]

Global Markets Tumble Amid Earnings Worries and Bond Yield Surge

The Asian market experienced a substantial sell-off, with Japan and South Korean benchmark indexes leading the region’s declines. In Australia, shares closed at a level not witnessed for over a year, as investors drew insights from Wall Street’s overnight performance.

In Europe, stock markets opened with a sharp decline on Thursday, with a focus on third-quarter earnings and government bond yields. Notable developments included Unilever Plc falling due to a third-quarter sales miss, WPP Plc dropping more than 5% after revising its revenue growth outlook, Mercedes-Benz Group AG declining by 6% as it projected car-making margins at the lower end of its forecast, and Standard Chartered Plc’s shares falling after missing profit estimates.

On Wall Street, a series of corporate earnings reports drove stock prices lower, with notable impact from Meta Inc.'s uncertain earnings outlook and Google parent Alphabet Inc.'s underwhelming cloud-related figures.

Furthermore, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached a fresh 10-year high ahead of a central bank meeting next week, pushing the yen past 150 per dollar and raising the risk of intervention from authorities in Tokyo. Japan’s finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, emphasized their vigilant monitoring of currency movements.

Simultaneously, monetary policy decisions are expected from the European Central Bank, where a hold in interest rates is highly anticipated, and the central bank of Turkey, with economists polled by Reuters, expects a 500 basis point hike to 35%.

Later on Thursday, a flurry of data, including US Initial jobless claims and GDP numbers, will offer a fresh snapshot of the world’s largest economy. Global increases in bond yields are also casting a shadow over the markets. Recent volatility may influence the ECB’s decisions on quantitative tightening, while the gradual rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is causing concerns about the outlook for stocks.

[ZforexCM]

Global Markets React to Economic Trends and Political Shifts

On Friday, markets in the Asia-Pacific region attempted a rebound, with Australian stocks bouncing back from a one-year low in the previous session. Investors continued to process new inflation data. Meanwhile, European stocks are expected to open slightly higher as investors remain cautious due to earnings and the state of the global economy.

Chinese state media reported that former premier Li Keqiang passed away at the age of 68. Data released by the government shows that China’s industrial profits fell in the first nine months compared to the previous year.

In Australia, government data released on Friday revealed that producer prices rose at a faster pace during the third quarter. The country’s PPI recorded a 1.8% increase quarter-on-quarter, a significant jump from the previous quarter’s 0.5% rise.

In Tokyo, the headline inflation rate for October came in at 3.3%, a faster rate of growth compared to the 2.8% seen in September. Core inflation, which excludes fresh food prices, stood at 2.7%, slightly higher than the 2.5% expected by economists polled by Reuters.

The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained its interest rates at their current levels on Thursday following a series of 10 rate hikes. ECB President Christine Lagarde clarified that the bank had not deliberated on the timing of the initial rate reduction, considering such a move as “totally premature.”

The U.S. GDP expanded by an annualized rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, surpassing the Dow Jones forecast of 4.7% growth. This is an improvement from the 2.1% growth seen in the second quarter, indicating economic resilience despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to control inflation.

On Friday, the U.S. personal consumption expenditures reading, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is set to be released.

[ZforexCM]

Global Economic Concerns Mount as Markets Reflect a $12 Trillion Loss

Investors eagerly awaited significant economic data from the Asian-Pacific markets as the week began with a mixed start. Meanwhile, investors closely watched the latest inflation figures from Spain and Germany, anticipating a mixed opening for European markets on Monday.

The global stock market has suffered a significant loss in value of $12 trillion since the end of July. This decline has raised concerns about the sustained “higher-for-longer” interest-rate policies of central banks, which could potentially lead the global economy toward a recession.

The Bank of Japan initiated its two-day monetary policy meeting, leading to an 11-year high in 10-year government bond yields. Nearly two-thirds of economists anticipate that the Bank of Japan will end negative rates in 2024, which could lead to higher Japanese yields and present additional challenges to the Treasury market.

Australia reported a 0.9% month-on-month increase in seasonally adjusted retail sales for September, indicating growth in the retail sector.

China Evergrande Group, the world’s most indebted developer, experienced a decline in its shares. However, the company gained some breathing space as a Hong Kong court postponed a winding-up hearing to December 4.

The director-general of the World Trade Organization has warned that the ongoing Israel-Hamas war could significantly impact global growth if it spills into the broader Middle East region.

The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a closely watched inflation measure by the Federal Reserve, increased by 0.3% in September, aligning with Dow Jones forecasts. The core PCE rose by 3.7% year-over-year, consistent with expectations. Inflation expectations also experienced a significant swing in the final revision of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for October, which was released on Friday.

Bitcoin is expected to record its strongest week since June, following a substantial rally earlier in the week that broke it out of the tight trading range it had been stuck in for most of this year.

[ZforexCM]

Europe’s Delicate Balance Between Growth and Inflation Control

The economic situation in Europe and Germany has seen a slight downturn, with both experiencing a 0.1% drop in GDP in the third quarter of 2023. This decline reflects the challenges of high inflation and rising interest rates that have curtailed consumer spending and slowed growth. There is a glimmer of hope, however, as inflation rates have begun to fall, suggesting that the strict monetary policy measures may be having an effect. In October, inflation in the Eurozone fell to 2.9% and in Germany to 3.9%, showing significant progress in price stabilization.

Despite this progress, Germany’s economic forecast remains guarded, with an anticipated 0.6% shrinkage for the year due to the enduring impacts of inflation and interest rate hikes. However, the outlook isn’t entirely bleak, as there’s an expectation of economic recovery towards the end of 2023 and continued improvement into 2025.

The path ahead for Germany and the wider European economy is a tricky one, balancing between slight economic decline and stagnation. Consumer spending, which is critical to economic health, isn’t recovering as quickly as some had hoped. Ongoing adjustments by the European Central Bank and geopolitical uncertainties also play a role in shaping future economic conditions.

In summary, the current economic climate is a mixed bag for the ECB: Inflation is being brought under control, yet there is still the challenge of promoting growth without causing a renewed rise in prices or a recession.

[ZforexCM]

Asia-Pacific Gains, Europe Optimistic, and U.S. Fed Decision Looms Amid Economic Shifts

Japanese equity markets outperformed other markets in the Asia-Pacific region as the Bank of Japan corrected its yield curve, attracting investor interest while keeping an eye on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. European equity markets are expected to open on a positive note in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s decision due on Wednesday.

On a separate note, the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI in China for October fell to 49.5 from September’s 50.6, indicating an economic contraction and defying analysts’ expectations.

Japanese bond futures recovered marginally after the central bank announced unexpected bond purchases to control a rise in yields following the policy announcement. The Japanese yen appreciated after the country’s monetary watchdog hinted at possible market intervention due to discrepancies with economic fundamentals.

Market predictions heavily favor the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged, with futures markets indicating a 97% likelihood of this outcome.

European data revealed inflation has decreased to its lowest in two years, and contrary to the stagnant growth forecasted, the economy contracted slightly in the third quarter. This economic update comes after the European Central Bank paused its streak of interest rate hikes.

Additionally, there is interest in the U.S. government’s new borrowing plan, which is expected to be disclosed shortly before the Federal Reserve shares its policy decision.

[Pipsteroid]

Hi, @ZforexCM

When you have time, could you please respond to the questions about your company asked here,?

[ZforexCM]

Global Markets React to Trade Data and Central Bank Actions

Global markets experienced significant fluctuations on Tuesday. South Korean stocks led losses in the Asia-Pacific region with a 3% decline. Investors closely monitored trade data from China and reacted to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s recent interest rate hike.

In Europe, markets were set for a negative opening as the positive momentum of the previous week began to fade. On Monday, regional markets closed lower after a period of buoyant sentiment. Tuesday promised a plethora of earnings reports in Europe, including releases from UBS, Deutsche Post, Metro Bank, and Associated British Foods.

China reported October’s trade figures, which proved to be a mixed bag. Exports in U.S. dollar terms fell by 6.4% compared to the previous year, worse than the Reuters poll’s prediction of a 3.3% drop. Surprisingly, imports rose by 3% in U.S. dollar terms compared to the previous year, defying Reuters’ forecast of a 4.8% decline.

Australia’s central bank took action on Tuesday by raising interest rates to a 12-year high, marking the end of four months of steady policy. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the door open for potential further tightening to address ongoing inflation concerns.

The RBA concluded its November policy meeting by increasing the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%, citing data suggesting a risk of prolonged high inflation.

In the United Kingdom, retail sales for October showed a 2.5% increase, exceeding the 1.6% growth from the previous year but falling short of the three-month and twelve-month averages of 3.1% and 4.2%, respectively.

Market observers are now anticipating the Federal Reserve’s response to the recent easing of financial conditions. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari emphasized that it is too soon to declare victory over inflation, despite some positive signs of easing price pressures. Several Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak in the coming days.

Market swaps currently indicate expectations of over 100 basis points in rate cuts by the Fed by the end of 2024, down from an expected peak rate of 5.37%.

[flamingoproxy]

hi Zforex

please don’t keep ignoring Pipsteroid’s question (see just above your post), and mine, about your brokerage

you have asserted that the company is regulated and are repeatedly being asked by which regulator (not where it’s incorporated, not from where it has a broker licence but by which regulator it’s regulated)

if you made a mistake, or tried to mislead anyone, a good solution would be simply to say “sorry - my mistake - we’re not actually regulated”

but please don’t imagine that continuing to ignore the totally legitimate questions arising from your claim to be regulated is going to make them go away

thanks for understanding, and many of us look forward to seeing your replies

[flamingoproxy]

please reply to the question asked here, , ZforexCM

people in other web forums are now asking the same thing

so you’ve aroused plenty of curiosity

obviously you wouldn’t want anyone thinking you’d made an untruthful claim, so do please tell us by whom you’re regulated?

thank you!!

[ZforexCM]

Market Dynamics: Dollar Pressure, Yen Stability, and Commodity Trends Amid Interest Rate Speculation

The dollar has been experiencing pressure, hovering near a four-month low, driven by market expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon reduce interest rates. These expectations, along with modest year-end trading activities, have limited market fluctuations. The dollar’s recent decline, marking its second consecutive month of losses, stems from market anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts next year, diminishing the attractiveness of the US currency. Currently, markets are factoring in a 79% probability of a rate cut beginning in March 2024, with expectations of over 150 basis points in reductions for the upcoming year.

The Japanese yen has stabilized around a five-month high, influenced by speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might end its highly accommodative monetary policy. Throughout most of 2022 and 2023, this policy has placed the yen under pressure, especially as other major central banks have initiated significant rate hikes. On Monday, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda noted an increasing likelihood of meeting the bank’s inflation target and mentioned the possibility of policy adjustments if there is a sufficient prospect of sustainably reaching the 2% target.

Gold prices remained stable on December 27, amidst subdued trading during the final week of the year. However, gold is poised to record its best performance in three years, buoyed by expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the first quarter of 2024.

In the previous session, Brent crude and US WTI crude benchmarks saw gains exceeding 2 percent. This rise in oil prices was influenced by concerns over potential shipping disruptions in the Red Sea due to additional attacks on vessels. Moreover, the optimism surrounding potential US interest rate cuts in 2024, which could stimulate economic growth and increase fuel demand, also played a role in the positive trend observed in the previous session’s oil market.

[ZforexCM]

Dollar Weakens as Rate Cut Expectations Rise and Commodities Rally Amid Geopolitical Tensions

The US dollar is experiencing a significant downturn, poised for a 2.6% annual decline, thereby ending its consecutive two-year run of robust gains. This downturn is primarily attributed to shifting market focus toward the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate adjustments. Currently, there’s an 88% market consensus predicting a rate cut by the Fed in March 2024, with further expectations of substantial easing exceeding 150 basis points within the next year.

Contrastingly, in the UK, the Bank of England faces different challenges. Higher inflation rates in the UK suggest that the Bank may not be able to mirror the rate cuts of the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) to the same extent. This disparity has led to a widening gap between British bond yields and those in the US and Europe, consequently enhancing the attractiveness of British bonds and strengthening the pound.

The Japanese yen, meanwhile, has seen a notable upswing, appreciating 4% against the dollar in December alone. This marks its second consecutive month of gains, fueled by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan might soon shift away from its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the central bank has maintained its stance earlier this month. Governor Kazuo Ueda affirmed a cautious approach, indicating no immediate intention to alter the ultra-loose monetary policy, especially given the small risk of inflation exceeding 2% and accelerating.

In the commodities market, gold has emerged as a beneficiary of the dollar’s decline. Gold prices have risen to their highest in over three weeks, correlating with the dollar index’s descent to a five-month low. This decline positions the dollar for its worst yearly performance since 2020. The surge in gold prices is also occurring alongside the languishing US 10-year bond yields, which hover near their lowest level since July, amidst market bets on the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts as early as next March.

The oil market is experiencing a resurgence, recouping some of its prior session losses. This recovery is largely driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, which continue to elevate the risk premium in the oil market. Industry data reveals that US crude inventories have experienced a substantial increase, with a jump of 1.84 million barrels last week, marking the most significant weekly gain in five weeks.

[ZforexCM]

Dollar Weakens as Rate Cut Expectations Rise and Commodities Rally Amid Geopolitical Tensions

The US dollar is experiencing a significant downturn, poised for a 2.6% annual decline, thereby ending its consecutive two-year run of robust gains. This downturn is primarily attributed to shifting market focus toward the Federal Reserve’s anticipated interest rate adjustments. Currently, there’s an 88% market consensus predicting a rate cut by the Fed in March 2024, with further expectations of substantial easing exceeding 150 basis points within the next year.

Contrastingly, in the UK, the Bank of England faces different challenges. Higher inflation rates in the UK suggest that the Bank may not be able to mirror the rate cuts of the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) to the same extent. This disparity has led to a widening gap between British bond yields and those in the US and Europe, consequently enhancing the attractiveness of British bonds and strengthening the pound.

The Japanese yen, meanwhile, has seen a notable upswing, appreciating 4% against the dollar in December alone. This marks its second consecutive month of gains, fueled by growing expectations that the Bank of Japan might soon shift away from its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the central bank has maintained its stance earlier this month. Governor Kazuo Ueda affirmed a cautious approach, indicating no immediate intention to alter the ultra-loose monetary policy, especially given the small risk of inflation exceeding 2% and accelerating.

In the commodities market, gold has emerged as a beneficiary of the dollar’s decline. Gold prices have risen to their highest in over three weeks, correlating with the dollar index’s descent to a five-month low. This decline positions the dollar for its worst yearly performance since 2020. The surge in gold prices is also occurring alongside the languishing US 10-year bond yields, which hover near their lowest level since July, amidst market bets on the Federal Reserve initiating interest rate cuts as early as next March.

The oil market is experiencing a resurgence, recouping some of its prior session losses. This recovery is largely driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, which continue to elevate the risk premium in the oil market. Industry data reveals that US crude inventories have experienced a substantial increase, with a jump of 1.84 million barrels last week, marking the most significant weekly gain in five weeks.

[ZforexCM]

Global Currency and Commodity Trends: The Dollar’s Decline and Market Shifts in 2023

On Friday, the dollar index remained stable above 101, yet it is poised to conclude the year with a decline. This shift in trend comes as traders increasingly speculate that the Federal Reserve might begin reducing interest rates as early as March of the upcoming year. After a 15% rise over the prior two years, the index experienced a 2% drop in 2023. As economic data started to show signs of slowing inflation in the United States, investor focus shifted toward the timing of the Fed’s potential rate cuts. This speculation gained momentum following the Fed’s December policy meeting, which leaned towards a more dovish stance.

While the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have shown no immediate plans to lower rates, other major central banks are expected to follow the Fed’s lead in relaxing their policies, which could further weaken the dollar. The British pound against the dollar recorded a 5% annual increase, marking its best performance since 2017.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars, often seen as proxies for the Chinese yuan, were set for monthly gains of 3.5% and 3%, respectively, against the dollar. However, their yearly performance remained largely unchanged. The economic recovery in China post-COVID has been less robust than expected, affecting these currencies.

In contrast, the Japanese yen was on track to decline by over 7% in 2023, continuing its downward trend for the third consecutive year. This trend is largely attributed to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) ongoing ultra-loose monetary policy. Despite market expectations of the BoJ moving away from negative interest rates in 2024, the central bank maintains its dovish stance. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda recently stated there was no urgency to shift from the current monetary policy, as the risk of inflation significantly exceeding 2% was low.

The anticipation of major central banks starting to ease rates in 2024 has sparked a ‘risk-on’ rally, uplifting global equity markets. Gold prices have surged 14% this year, heading for their largest annual increase since 2020. This rise is fueled by growing expectations of US interest rate cuts early next year and heightened safe-haven demand due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East. Traders now see an 88% probability of the US Federal Reserve cutting rates in March, following recent data indicating cooler inflation.

Finally, oil prices are expected to conclude 2023 at approximately 10% lower, marking their first annual decline in two years. This decrease has been driven by various factors, including geopolitical tensions, production adjustments, and worldwide efforts to control inflation, leading to significant price volatility throughout the year.

[ZforexCM]

Dollar Strengthens on Higher Yields, Eurozone PMI Beats Forecasts, Pound Faces Recession Concerns

The dollar approached a two-week high, bolstered by a combination of factors including higher US Treasury yields and a shift towards caution in risk sentiment that negatively impacted Wall Street. Trading activity in Asia was subdued due to a holiday in Japan, leading to the dollar trimming some of its earlier gains during the region’s trading day. A spike in risk appetite at the end of the previous year, spurred by the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance in December, had previously weakened the dollar and triggered rallies in both Treasuries and stocks.

In the Eurozone, the HCOB Manufacturing PMI for December 2023 rose to 44.4, up from November’s 44.2, surpassing forecasts. The German Manufacturing PMI also exceeded expectations, increasing to 43.3 in December from 43.1. Upcoming data releases include German employment figures and the Eurozone HCOB Composite PMI, Services PMI, and December Consumer Price Index (CPI).

In the United Kingdom, recession concerns and a weakening manufacturing sector are reducing the appeal of the Pound Sterling. Growing economic pessimism and the cost of living crisis could prompt Bank of England policymakers to rethink their strategy of maintaining high interest rates.

The market reaction to the recent 7.6 magnitude earthquake in Japan was short-lived and the Bank of Japan was expected to take a hawkish turn in policy. The BoJ is expected to exit its ultra-loose policy in April after the annual wage negotiations in March, although an earlier move in January is not off the table.

Uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s timetable for rate cuts has led to a sudden rise in US Treasury bond yields, posing a challenge to non-yielding gold prices. The upcoming FOMC meeting minutes are eagerly awaited as they will provide clues on future policy direction, which will impact both the USD and gold prices.

Oil prices initially surged earlier in the week following attacks on vessels in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels and the reported presence of an Iranian warship. These events raised concerns about potential disruptions in crucial oil transportation waterways. However, optimism regarding aggressive US interest rate cuts diminished, leading to a downturn in oil markets ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and employment data release.

[ZforexCM]

Dollar Gains Ground as Fed’s Reassessment Sparks Interest Rate Cut Speculation, Central Bank Policies in Focus

The dollar edged higher on Thursday as investors reassessed their expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. This reassessment followed the release of the Fed’s December meeting minutes, which expressed the belief that inflation is becoming more manageable. The minutes also raised concerns about the potential negative impact of the central bank’s tight monetary policy on the economy. Recent indicators of a slowdown in the US economy have supported predictions of rate cuts by the Fed, but opinions differ on the extent and speed of these potential cuts.

In Germany, data released by the Statistics Office failed to exceed increase expectations in unemployment, with the number of unemployed rising by 5,000, compared to the previous increase of 21,000 and forecasts of a 20,000 improvement. The German unemployment rate remained steady at 5.9%. Upcoming German inflation data, particularly the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for December, projected to rise to 3.8% year-over-year from 2.3%, is awaited for further market direction.

The UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell short of expectations in December at 46.2, leading to increased speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) could cut interest rates as early as May to counter the stagnant economy. Market prices suggest that interest rate cuts of around 140 basis points are likely in 2024. The final PMI for the services sector from the UK will also provide important economic insights.

The Japanese Yen weakened to a near two-week low against the US Dollar on Thursday. Despite this, factors like the Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI’s contraction for the seventh consecutive month are anticipated to provide some support to the JPY. Expectations of a policy shift by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) relative to the Federal Reserve in 2024 could also support the yen.

Gold prices increased on Thursday as the dollar declined, with investors awaiting US jobs data to determine the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. Expectations of delayed interest rate cuts are exerting downward pressure on gold prices.

Oil prices rose on Thursday, building on previous gains amid ongoing concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions, including issues in Libya and rising tensions in the Israel-Gaza conflict.