The price of gold pulls back ahead of the record high ($3500) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of overbought territory.
By : David Song, Strategist
Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD
The price of gold pulls back ahead of the record high ($3500) to keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) out of overbought territory.
Gold Price Weakness Keeps RSI Out of Overbought Territory
Bullion struggles to retain the advance from the start of the week as US President Donald Trump announces that ‘together with our strong ally, the United Kingdom, we have reached the first, historic trade deal since Liberation Day,’ and the waning threat of a trade war may curb the appeal of gold as President Trump insists that there’s ‘many more to come.’
Join David Song for the Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar.
In turn, the price of gold may may continue to give back the rebound from the monthly low ($3202) as there appears to be a shift in investor confidence, but the recent weakness in bullion may turn out to be temporary as it remains an alternative to fiat-currencies.
With that said, the price of gold may continue to track the positive slope in the 50-Day SMA ($3121) as it still holds above the moving average, but failure to hold above the indicator may signal a potential change in trend.
XAU/USD Price Chart – Daily
Chart Prepared by David Song, Senior Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
- The price of gold pulls back ahead of the record high ($3500) to snap the recent series of higher highs and lows, with a move below $3280 (100% Fibonacci extension) raising the scope for a test of the weekly low ($3238).
- Failure to defend the monthly low ($3202) may push the price of gold towards the $3160 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) to $3190 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) region, with the next area of interest coming in around $3120 (61.8% Fibonacci extension).
- At the same time, a move back above $3370 (161.8% Fibonacci extension) brings the April high ($3500) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around $3540 (161.8% Fibonacci extension).
Additional Market Outlooks
GBP/USD Post-BoE Rebound Unravels amid US-UK Trade Deal
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Threatens December High
Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Reverses Ahead of Monthly High
EUR/USD Defends Rebound from Monthly Low Ahead of Fed Rate Decision
— Written by David Song, Senior Strategist
Follow on X at @DavidJSong
Click the website link below to read our Guide to central banks and interest rates in Q2 2025
https://www.cityindex.com/en-au/market-outlooks-2025/q2-central-banks-outlook/
From time to time, StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (“we”, “our”) website may contain links to other sites and/or resources provided by third parties. These links and/or resources are provided for your information only and we have no control over the contents of those materials, and in no way endorse their content. Any analysis, opinion, commentary or research-based material on our website is for information and educational purposes only and is not, in any circumstances, intended to be an offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell. You should always seek independent advice as to your suitability to speculate in any related markets and your ability to assume the associated risks, if you are at all unsure. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the materials on our website are complete or accurate. We are not under any obligation to update any such material.
As such, we (and/or our associated companies) will not be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred by you or any third party arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information on our website (other than with regards to any duty or liability that we are unable to limit or exclude by law or under the applicable regulatory system) and any such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed.