Given the deceleration of the correction, the 4-hour chart indicates that the price is poised for a possible break to the downside. A break of $1,890 in the opening sessions could pave the way to the daily chart’s 38.2 percent Fibo near $1,880.
In the above live 4-hour chart, the price is close to resistance and unable to close above it. If there are consecutive failures on the upside, the bears will be looking for a test of the prior lows, with $1,890 as a firm target to break. Let’s keep an eye on $1,900 as bearish bias dominates below this and vice versa. Good luck!
Gold Daily Outlook - Feb 28, 2022
In the last two days, XAU/USD has risen to a one-and-a-half-year high of $1,974.48 early Thursday, but has since fallen and has so far failed to cling to the $1900 level. It is worth noting that some investors are aware that the Russian Central Bank has some gold reserves and have booked profits ahead of the $2,000 mark, fearing that President Putin may use some of those reserves to support the Russian ruble.
Gold is trading with a bullish bias near $1,900 amid a surge in safe-haven appeal. The daily moving averages (DMAs) have a bullish slope and are located well below the XAU/USD spot price. This, combined with the breach of a nine-month-old downslope resistance trendline, fueled the uptrend, allowing gold bulls to reclaim the $1900 mark. XAU/USD first resistance would be $1,916. Breaching the latter will expose the January 2021 highs of $1,959, which, if cleared, could pave the way to $2,000. Good luck!
Gold prices justify the latest bearish Doji on the four-hour chart as they retreat from multi-day highs amid overbought RSI conditions. However, pullback moves will be difficult to come by until the quote defies last week’s triangle breakout by falling below the previous resistance line of $1,928.
Ahead of that, the XAU/USD pullback may be tested by February’s high of $1,967. If gold prices fall below $1,928, the $1,900 level and an ascending support line from late January near $1,890 will put bears to the test before handing over control. The 200-SMA level of $1,860 also acts as a downside filter.
Alternatively, the January-February 61.8 percent Fibonacci Expansion (FE) near the $2,000 psychological magnet tests the metal’s immediate upside ahead of the theoretical target of last week’s triangle breakout near $2,030. Following that, the peak near $2,077 in August 2020 will be in focus. Good luck!
On an hourly basis, XAU/USD trades in a falling channel, indicating a lackluster move with a negative bias. At $1,975.40, the precious metal has found support near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) fluctuates between 40.00 and 60.00, indicating a back and forth movement in the precious metal ahead. On the bullish side, gold may find an immediate resistance at $1,980 and $1,995 levels, and a break above this can open further upward room until $2,011. Good luck!
The XAU/USD has broken out of the falling channel, sending gold prices near $1,945. The upper end of the falling channel is marked by the high of March 17 at $1,949.80, while the lower end is marked by the low of March 18 at $1,918.21. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) oscillates between 60.00 and 80.00, indicating that the bullish trend is likely to continue. The 21-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1,937.15 will significantly support the counter. Good luck!
I’d want to see the high or low of this range broken and then look for it to shoot the opposite direction. My bias is still for it to break out bullishly once it takes out the lows personally.
The level you have marked as a potential support looks good to hold the price. The price has been heading towards it with a strong bearish momentum upon producing a Double Top. Thus, the buyers may have to wait for a strong bullish reversal pattern to go long in Gold.
Although Friday’s Doji candlestick on the daily chart suggests further gold declines, an eight-day-old rising trend channel limits the metal’s short-term downside. However, the 200-SMA adds strength to the stated channel’s support line near $1,925, while the 50-SMA around $1,937 limits the metal’s immediate downside.
Meanwhile, recovery moves are dependent on a clear break above the $1,975 barrier, which is comprised of the stated channel’s upper line and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of late February to March upside. If gold prices rise above $1,975, the possibility of further gains towards the March 10 swing high near $2,010 cannot be ruled out. Good luck!
Your TA is fascinating.
I’m a huge proponent of keeping it simple, but to see your complex analysis lining up with my simple S+R analysis is nice.
I’m thinking another swing down to test the 1920 support once more is looking very likely.
Gold has been heading towards the North again. The daily chart shows that it produced consecutive bullish candles and made a bullish breakout at 1963.20 level. The buyers now may wait for the price to consolidate and produce a bullish reversal candle to go long in Gold.
