GU didn’t go up as much I would have liked, but I was happy with building a position on EURUSD shorts. I still expect the dollar to strengthen - I would think that every piece of significant US positive data would cause this until they have another FOMC meeting, or if the stock market drops enough. So over the next week that’s what I am looking out for.
In terms of the AUDUSD, seems like that will continue to be hammered, but thats not a pair that I am interested in over the next week.
That’s good. I exited these two positions in some profit at the 50% fib retracement, confluenting with the 200 SMA on h4, correlating with the Eurusd 50% retracement, at 1.5375 G/U. Dollar is gonna go more up now is my feeling.
If the dollar keeps on charging up, then in a few weeks will make for decent long term positions in gold and silver as well.
I am still holding dollar longs over the longer term so nothing closed. I also note that the RBA mas made mutterings that the AUD is low enough and that this makes it likely that they won’t cut rates. However, with the strong USD overview, this might mean that the AUDUSD pair gets into a fundamentally oversold territory (a few hundred pips under 0.9) which would be good for long carry trades once the USD strength is done.
I closed some of my dollar longs yesterday after holding for a couple of weeks, but I am still dollar long (seems like I am a USA fan) with ADP showing decent results. Again this would point to more investment in the US. GBP has the first interest rate decision today with Carney, but with the UK results all showing recovery I don’t think he has a lot to do (what a good job!). AUD I am still waiting for it to weaken further (might never get there). Strangely enough it seems to me that precious metals might have bottomed here so I’ll keep my eye open on those. The EUR I think has shown that it has significant interest in buying below 1.3 as things currently stand (and ofc they could change).
I closed up the USDJPY because it was struggling to go up as the USD was racing up against the Euro, and there were a few concerns from the eurozone about Japanese manipulation again.
I notice that the AUD remained bid also despite the USD being bought, indicating that this may be a decent level to buy - gold and silver have also settled despite the USD going up, again indicating that it is heavily bid. If anyone caught the Draghi statement he made some telling remarks: these were:
To me this indicates that unless commodities jump (with a strengthening USD?) that down for the rates is more likely than up especially if there is weak growth. I have no real way of measuring the administration costs so I will just have to take his word for it. I didn’t expect Carney to make any remarks - as far as I can tell all he mentioned was that he was not going to increase interest rates (which was taken hugely negatively). There’s FOMC today which usually is a big mover - depending on he says we will know whether there is a change of direction, a rally to sell into or a plunge.
FOMC was a bit unexpected as Bernacke basically went back on what he said a few weeks ago about rate cutting and announced it at the end of . I expect a lot of volatility on any Fed statements coming up, otherwise I would say that being range bound (with high volatility) is what I expect. The metals seemed however to have bottomed here.
are you a full time trader? your results are amazing. do you trade fundamentals?
Hi I am not currently full time no. As for trading fundamentals I think that its very difficult to trade if you ignore them.
ok, thanks for the anwers, but you also use technical analyzisis? cheers
Its a broad subject, but yes, technical analysis I think is important too, but I think overemphasised for purely manual strategies (can’t get away with it for automated though).
I closed my metals longs as gold was heading into obvious technical resistance. I think there will be opportunities to buy dips or it will range for a few days. Perhaps I should hold these trades longer, but I was quite satisfied in taking profits. Looking at the market now, it still appears as if EURUSD in is a range. If EURUSD breaks out it could go as far as 1.34-5 or low as 1.29, but I don’t really see any factors that would cause it to do so at the moment. I would be looking for longs on GBPUSD, or shorts on EURGBP although I rarely trade the latter.
Although the USD ran up (partially weak data, and again partially cascading USDJPY stops and possibly EURUSD stops) and took GBP along with it, I was surprised at EURGBP being heavily bid. There were clues that the EUR was being bid on, but I didn’t think it would spill over to such a large EURGBP move. Still, it has been a better month than I have had for a long while.
Tomorrow there is again the FOMC meeting and a chance for a statement to counter the constant printing. On Thursday there is a chance for the ECB to once again reiterate the low rates, although the stronger European data has offset the need for it. I would still be more inclined to listen to what the ECB have repeatedly said about rates. The EURUSD has been caught in a tight range and would think that a move down would see a large move, while moves up would be capped quite swiftly.
lol
I haven’t really seen anything that piques my interest in the past week - I would be tempted to be a dollar buyer if EURUSD approaches 1.34 or USDJPy approaches 95. The cut in rates of the AUD has made me less tempted to buy it. Of course any large changes in US figures will change that approach.
Can I delete you? I don’t know how to moderate the thread (or even if thats possible).
The EURUSD really ground to a standstill for anyone swing trading though I am sure that scalpers must have loved the market in the past month. There was more movement in the USDJPY for dollar buying which really made the month worthwhile. Meanwhile I have been working on an automated system that I hope to introduce later on this year. This will mean I will be shutting the history on my trading as it has rather a narrow edge that I don’t want blunted by reverse engineering.
What currently interests me are GBP long positions that I will be looking at over the next month. There are a few landmines in the form of the Fed and I will be having small positions until that event is clear. I have found Fed announcements to be extremely opaque in that I have no real idea what they are planning.
Very nice result guys…
Do you have used EA in gold trading???
I have an idea for a gold EA but unfortunately the minimal size on gold is quite large, and it tends to be quite volatile. I am trialing an automated system but there is no room at the moment for gold unless I can find a broker that is happy to accept microlots/nanolots for gold. My automated system progression is coming a long quite well and I just need to refine a few things - I am hoping by November it will be complete.
As for the prior weeks, the ongoing events in Syria gave plenty of chances in oil - the massive drop/stop hunt when the oil markets opened after Obama said he was going to go ahead with punishing Assad was an interesting bit of market making. It seems that there is a stalemate over what to do next, so there is nothing obvious I can see.
I closed the GBP long position because of unpredictable movements due to the upcoming Fed announcements next week. The FOMC announcement could give some tradable opportunities if a) there is no reduction in QE, or b) there is a notable piece of forward guidance. Of course, the FOMC could say one thing, and Bernake could state something completely different the day afterwards as he is keen on doing.
Hi golden, I know maybe you will not answer my question but I will ask it anyway cause mabe you do, I was wondering what strategy/rules you are following on your trades? I would like to trade like you… I like the idea of long term trading but most important surviving to forex over the long term…
you can reply me here or by PM i would be glad.
Congratulations for you job!
Its a case of trading a reasonably small lot size so you can hold trades over the longer term and not be tempted to close for 10-20 pips. You also need to be aware of most of the pitfalls of limitations of traditionally held methods (I have thread on the newbie section). You need to be aware of technical and fundamental effects (charts only make up a small part of trading) on the market, and develop skills to be able to differentiate between useful/not useful information. Sounds vague, but to make money from the market I believe you actually need to understand the driving forces behind them, and there are entire academic subjects developed to that.
Can you give an example of how you use fundamentals? How do you form your bias?
