I have noted that the daily ranges on the pairs I usually trade have ground to a near standstill. EURUSD was the pair I most often traded but it appears that these days that the daily range is 20-40 pips, and the overall daily close to daily close movement is around 5-10 pips per day which makes for agonising longer term trading as prices seem very close to where they were a few weeks previously. Much of the bigger movement appears to be on the crosses, although I am not quite sure why this has occurred - hopefully it is not a long term pattern as it has made trading tedious. When I first started trading, average daily ranges were 200 pips, and to be cut down to a fifth of that value over the last couple of months has made things trickier. It has even made it more tempting to scalp, as prices appear to be locked in tight ranges with no direction. My overall principle is that I dislike scalping, so its tricky to avoid the temptation!
I was thinking about how differently I trade today compared to how I first started reading about forex and trading and it actually blows me away. I now recognise that almost every bad habit I had developed through following one guru method or another. I just wonder if people would be much more successful without the internet, or by someone telling them how they should be trading! Anyway - onto my observations. It appears that NZD and AUD are shooting up -although there have been some complaints that Australia “needs” AUD lower, this really doesn’t have a basis. For instance, I could ‘need’ the GBP higher so I can go to Disneyland for a bargain price, but it doesn’t actually mean anything. And considering the price fluctuations in the commodities that NZ and Aus provide are far more than the fluctuations in the currency pairs I don’t actually think ‘need’ has anything to do with it. For example I recently read an old article from 2004 (9 years ago) where France was complaining the Euro was too high (at 1.2) and that France ‘needs’ it lower -it used to be close to parity - and 10 years later it still is way higher. I have to keep reminding myself not to read these articles as it really does muddy any plan I have!
Hello goldenmember,
It is great to see you again…I start to wonder where have you been all this time
Glad to see that you are still around and that you are still trading. Your record still looking great! Consistent as ever…Trying to get atleast a little piece of that consistency…
Thank you for all your contributions. It is greatly appreciated.
PNR
Thanks for reading and nice words PipnRoll - I’ve been away since it’s not really an incentive to post when no one replies!
Well speaking for myself…I tend to shut up when those who possess far more knowledge than I do, say something, otherwise I won’t learn anything! I realise newbies like myself could clutter your thread with thank you’s…but there is a risk that it comes across as ass k…ss…ng and certainly doesn’t add anything to the discussion…just like this post haha!
Bottom line is, please don’t stop posting! You are one of the few that backs up what you’re saying with an account that we can see…that lends serious weight to your words!
This is then my “thank you” to both you and PipnRoll on behalf of all silent lurkers on this thread:)
…as you were gentlemen (and lady)
Anton
The ECB have done their rate cuts, which is a shame because that one day a month seemed to be the only day that ever made the EURUSD pair move more than 100 pips - now that nothing new is going to happen for another 6 months, I wonder where the volatility is going to come from. The market does move, but I am increasingly looking away from the majors, since whenever I look at them, they are within 20 pips of the last time I checked.
On another note, I have decided to move into the managed account sector since I have had some interest from a few people over the last few months. I’ll also expect that I will move my journal to a twitter or blog style account so that I have more motivation to post.
I think a blog would be a great idea.
Have you thought about teaching other traders to trade? You described some of your principles, but they are still vague (discretionary).
What about posting real charts in that blog with some further explanations, to dig deeper into your decision making process? I would love that!
And thank you again for all your effort.
I have actually offered teaching for some time - you can find a link on myfxbook and website that I created lately. In terms of posting charts - it is so specific, that it is effectively worthless after the fact. I have posted a lot about why I think chart posting is not really that useful. I think its easier to write my decision processes in a book and see who reads it.