looks like a nice swing trade setup there. Good luck
Guys, what do you think of my latest discovery? Pretty powerful order flow analysis for the AUDUSD, i believe. It may help us to fine-tune our entries to buy & sell aussie.
quite interesting this,have to see what its like on other pairs,thanks for the post.
if you find any interesting stuffs on other pairs, let me know yah.
I present to you my latest findings on the order flow of AUDUSD. Remember that currencies are the lifelines of the global economy. People buy and sell currencies all the time. If i wanted to travel to London to watch the 2012 Olympics, i would change my local currency into British pounds. Which means i would buy GBP and sell SGD. Basic supply and demand.
We individuals do not have the power to move the currencies by 1 pip. So who does? It is the multinational companies such as IBM, Apple, BMW, Samsung and others. Central banks can manipulate their countries’ currencies. But they do it infrequently, although when they do it, it causes huge spikes. Witness BOJ intervening to weaken the YEN in 2011. Look up the daily chart of USDJPY and find the obvious one day spikes. It is the handicraft of Japan’s central bank. Hedge funds can and also shift currencies to a certain extent. But their main aim is speculation and to make profits.
The main factor in currency movement is this. Watch the order flow by the multinational corporations. Every month, whether it is the beginning or the end of each month, they buy and sell currencies. Why? Because they need to settle their monthly accounts. They need to hedge their positions. They need to repatriate their profits. They need to pay their suppliers. They need to collect payment from their customers. Every month, every quarter, every year end, they have to tabulate their profits and losses into their balance sheets. And a host of other reasons.
To illustrate my findings, see the AUDUSD chart. Now locate the places where price makes a major turn. The tops and bottoms are located mostly on the month-end or month-start. It is not a coincidence. It is order-flow.
I hope you understand the importance of order-flow now. Many traders talk on fundamental analysis (FA) and technical analysis (TA) when looking at the markets. I present to you the third analysis, order-flow analysis (OFA). Learn it well and you will become a more successful trader. Trading is a mind game.
Will the Aussie’s luck turn around at 1.0250? The minor psychological handle is not only near the 38.2% Fib on the daily chart, but it’s also a former support area. Ooh, and Stochastic is in the oversold region too! I can’t wait to see more reversal candles on this one!
I’m certainly watching the same level for the same reasons!
(Well, looking at RSI rather than Stochastic, but virtually the same reasons.)
Saw this setting up on Sunday night. It feels good to know others were watching it too. Especially people that I watch… all the time… I’m not creepy, I promise
Certain contributors to this thread will never relax in the shower in quite the same way again!
I actually think this pair has turned over…I’m looking to go short after a retracement to continue the downtrend and remain below the 200 SMA.
I am sitting out right now. We could see a retrace but I am more wanting the 1.02 fig taken out and retested before I look to get short again. Shorting right now would not be a good idea in my opinion. Guess we will see what happens
Yeh I agree with Bob… Not until NFP is out and we can get a more clear picture of QE3 prospects… Market seems to be pricing in no QE3… So if NFP disappoints, and QE looks more likely, expect a correction of this sentiment…
Already had a less dovish RBA statement last night… If we get QE then we will see a significant short squeeze to say the least.
I’m watching this one with a vested interest… I shorted this pair last week after it broke the channel support.
I’m thinking it will probably find some support this week ahead of NFP but then continue down, so my target is is the 50% fib @ 1.0100 with a bit of patience if it finds some correction this week.
As for speculation about QE3 having any effect… maybe, but I don’t think anything significant and lasting just yet - do you really think QE3 will happen before the elections?
Yeh I think it’s possible, especially if NFP disappoints… If it comes in high then not really.
ISM already came in low today… Be very wary of a low NFP if you are short commodities and risk right now…
An announcement for QE will have enough of an affect to wipe out any reasonably placed SL on a short position taken this week.
Hmm, looks like you’re onto something here. NFP came in weak below 100K and could revive QE3 speculations yet again, which means USD is back to trading on fundamentals.
Yep, today’s print has definately disappointed this setup. I’m still not sure there’ll be any QE before elections but it looks like the market disagrees with me! Thankfully I surrendered to Banker928’s caution and gave up on my 1.01 target and closed yesterday for +150 pips, thanks for the wake-up my friend!
Now I’ll be sidelined on this for a while.
By the looks of its daily chart, AUD/USD looks poised to be headed down under! If those Fibonacci levels hold as resistance, the right shoulder might form and confirm that the Aussie’s uptrend is indeed over. Stochastic is still pointing up though, which suggest that Aussie bulls haven’t given up the fight so this pair could have more room to head north.
In other words it could go up or it could go down,why cant life be simple eh,Id have to agree about south in the long term though,it dosent seem that th OZ economy is in that great a shape anymore,are we brave enough to hold onto a longterm short though thats the big question.
Spotted a good opportunity to place a long AUDUSD trade. If AUDUSD touches and holds onto the 3rd point of the rising channel, look to go long.
Ha! Same here. And from what I learned from experience, best stay on the sidelines when confused. When in doubt, stay out!