Is USD/CAD’s rally just one giant pullback? Reversal candles are forming at the 61.8% Fib, which is in line with a former support level on the 4-hour time frame. At the same time, stochastic is in the overbought zone, suggesting that Loonie bears might need a break. Do you think the downtrend will resume soon?
Should I jump in or should I wait for more confirmation? Share your thoughts with me!
Maybe it has broken it’s resistance level now… 
Are you seeing the big engulfing bearish candle on D1? Could this mean a move down to the 1.0064 level??
Yep, saw that earlier too! Plus that resistance level actually lined up with top WATR resistance for the week, so all the technical signals seem to line up for a short trade. If it does drop, it might test those former lows around 1.0064 like you mentioned.
Did you trade this one?
I was waiting to find an entry last night but fell asleep! I will keep an eye out today incase a opportunity presents itself. Are you based in the US? Seems like our posts on this and the AUD/USD thread seem to be far apart!!
If you’re planning on shorting the comdolls, then trading USD/CAD’s parity level might be your best bet right now. The major psychological handle is not only a former resistance level on the daily chart, but it’s also the bottom of the falling channel that we’re all watching!
There’s also a little RSI divergence supporting a Long, albeit not as strong as I would like. I have lines on my chart that are pretty identical to your own, and if today’s Daily closes as a low test then I’ll certainly place a long order this evening (I’m taking a pretty conservative approach in the current market).
But we’re thinking the same way.
ST
Raking in those profits, I suppose? Are you gonna keep this trade open until the NFP release?
If this rallies all the way up to the 1.0100 area, I’ll be jumping in short. Where is your target?
Lol well I’m not sure I’d so far as to say ‘raking in’ but I’m still with it, yes. It has made the typically underwhelming start to a NFP Friday but I’m sticking with it. Yes, I will hold it through NFP, but my Stop is at BE so it’s all upside really.
Target is a little fluid, given the current conditions, the fact that it is NFP etc. I’m not sure we’ll get there, so I really just have it in as insurance - I always place a TP order, then manage my Stop up to it, so if we get a retracement or reversal I still get out with a profit.
On this occasion, I have set my TP at 1.0168 - it’s around the top of the Daily falling channel, as well as around the 38.2 Fib level for the duration of the move. That would be a good R:R, and I will manage the trade towards that level, as a lot could happen before then - it’s NFP, obviously, plus yesterday Price peaked just below the Monthly and Weekly Pivots, which are at the same level (just below your 1.0100 level). I absolutely see why you would short there, I just have the more ambitious TP in as a backstop. I expect that my trailed Stop will be taken out ahead of then. But it’s good to have dreams lol.
Have a good weekend if we don’t overlap again ahead of then.
ST
How did your trade turn out? That NFP was quite a bummer for me…
USD/CAD’s falling channel on the 4-hour time frame is still intact and there’s a bullish divergence right on the 1.0000 major psychological mark. That’s right in line with the bottom of the channel, which means that Loonie bulls might have a tough time breaking that support level.
Lol like your turn of phrase, it was ‘quite a bummer’ for me, too. I closed 50% of the position for a profit when the market began to turn, and trailed the Stop on the remainder to BE. This was then hit. Similar story with AUD/USD and GBP/USD, which were my two other trades from last week. I made some money, but disappointing. But what can you do?! It happens, sigh.
After pausing just above the .9900 major psychological handle, it looks like USD/CAD is ready for a bounce! Those who are looking for an area to short can take a risk at parity, which is near the 50% Fib on the 4-hour chart.
This USDCAD trade looks promising. There may be a possible bounce from the support zone. I am willing to risk playing with a larger position size on this trade. As the risk to reward ratio is very favourable at 1 is to 5.
LONG USDCAD around 0.9800-20
Stop loss below 0.9780
Target profit 1.0000
Nice charting and very nice trade. I will be getting in on this one for sure.
RSI on the daily chart shows this pair as very oversold. It was under 30 only a day or two ago.
Price of oil is up too so that should help this pair hit that 0.9820 mark.
If you’re a Loonie bear, then you might like this potential bounce setup on USD/CAD. It looks like the pair is currently approaching the next support level located at the .9800 major psychological level. Do you think it’ll hold?
As I always say, if there’s one thing that USD/CAD loves to do, it’s to move sideways inside a range! Right now, it looks like the pair is forming a new range between .9895 and .9945. Note that .9895 acted as resistance earlier on, which means that it probably switched gears and will act as strong support from now on. But will the top of the range hold?
Great call on that bounce play BTW!
Big chance it will never reach 0.9800.
We didn’t get a new low last Friday, maybe 0.9842 is the bottom for now.
Anyway I’m long, target 0.9920 and longer term (few weeks) 1.0070
My guess is .9950 to .9750 range for a while. Currently I am long a small position.
