Happy Corner: Loonie (CAD) pairs

If there’s one thing a girl hates, it’s getting mixed signals! And that’s exactly what I’m seeing on USD/CAD’s 1-hour time frame.

On one hand, there’s a double bottom formation as the pair bounced a couple of times off the 1.0200 major psychological support, signaling that an uptrend could be in the cards. There’s also a bullish pennant sitting close to the formation’s neckline at 1.0350.

On the other hand, the falling trend line connecting the pair’s highs is still intact while stochastic is indicating a bearish divergence.

This could be a make or break, fellas! Which side are you on this week?

bearish divergence was the rights one… but i think market sentiment has dominating the price action recently, i would only rely 30% on technical and 70% for the news… I’m off for trades, cause i don’t like the environment of the market right now. hahaa good lucks happypip

Yep! The bearish signals turned out to be right on this one, but that was way too risky for me to take. I agree with you, the environment is pretty unclear right now so I haven’t decided on any setups yet. Based on your advice, I’ll pay closer attention to news this time. Thanks and good luck to you too!

A possible setup to go long on the pair on the 4hr chart, if reversal candle forms. Pair is already extremely oversold and seems to be stalling at 1.0200, which has been a previous support area. Will keep an eye open for the next couple hrs.

I’m keeping my eye on that 1.0200 support too, but I’m worried it might break during the FOMC statement this week. Looks like a head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour also. Then again, USD/CAD has been somewhat consistent with ranges so we could see a bounce like you expect. Good luck with your trades!

I know a lot of you are watching a possible head and shoulder break on USD/CAD, but if we look at the 4-hour chart closely, we’ll see that a descending triangle is also forming right where the second shoulder should be. With two patterns signaling a downside move, do you think a bearish trade for the pair is a good idea?

I actually saw the descending triangle at the time, so it was a short term setup. I entered the trade at 1.0209 and exited at 1.0259 = +50 pips.

Good one! Congrats!

i really like your trading ideas happypip and I’m following you there. hope to hear you more :))

Aww, thanks so much! Don’t be shy to share your trade ideas here, too! :slight_smile:

Thanks to the risk off environment and falling oil prices, USD/CAD has been on a steady uptrend for more than a week and counting. The pair seems to have found support at the rising trend line again while stochastic just turned after hitting the oversold zone. The question is: How much higher can this pair go?

Like what Big Pippin pointed out on his charts today, USD/CAD is showing a nice descending channel setup on the 4-hour chart. Will USD/CAD reach all the way to the bottom of the channel near the 1.0100 handle, or will 1.0150 provide enough challenge for the Loonie bulls?

I think this chart can help you to figure what actually is going to happen… :slight_smile:
I’ve also check H1 chart and it seems like a divergence is forming in MACD. What do you think?

Hi happypip here is divergence. what you think its reversal?Trend is our friend. so i am so afraid to trade against trend. I don,t found any reversal pin bar. Its already break support line 1.0150 but stuck on fib 50level 1.0125 let see what happen. or you r waiting for 1.0100

Which time frame brother?

you gotta to be kidding me brother, if you din know how to look on timeframe!!..

Actually the image is in low resolution… So, couldn’t figure that out… :wink:

Looks like 1.0100 support/bottom of the channel is holding for now and that’s also bottom WATR for the week. NFP could be a make or break and, since I won’t be able to watch my charts then, I’ll sit this one out.

Thanks to weaker than expected U.S. jobs data, risk aversion pushed USD/CAD up from the bottom of the channel last week. Of course it also helped that the channel support lined up with 1.0100 and was close to last week’s bottom WATR.

Will the upward momentum carry it all the way to the top of the channel this week? It looks like the pair is stalling right in the middle while a bearish divergence already formed.

Which way do you think it’ll go?

The Loonie is testing the 1.0130 handle, an area that has served as a pretty solid support last week. Will the level hold once again, or will QE speculations drag the pair to new intraweek lows? Let the tug-o-pips begin!