Help me plz!

Beginner Questions
1

I’m not stupid in that sense that I don’t understand things I read or hear. I even consider myself quite capable of analyzing what I have done wrong and correct myself.

The problem now is that these last two weeks I have been practically unable to get one singel pip. You need to understand that I have a collegue and he is utterly dissapointed at me for beliving that the trading I show to him is for real.

I have had several weeks with profits earlier and started to feel a bit comfortable with what was going on but now, I can just take a random trade with a SL 10 pips away and my limit 20 pips away. I’ll lose 100 times out of 100. If I do it the other way round, SL 20 pips away and my limit 10 pips I’ll still lose 100 times out of 100. Is there a mathematical explanation to that?

What I find uncomprehendable is the fact that the result of my indicators seem to be winning a whole lot more than loosing when I study the charts backwards. When I for whatever reason miss to take a trade it ALWAYS goes as planned and ALWAYS very much so. The next time when I’m in, no way in hell. The price turns against all indicators within an instant. This I seem to be able to do with a precision unheard of.
A few times a have had 5-8 pips up for a few seconds when looking the other way but very rarely. Mostly the candlesticks shadow just barely touches my +/-0 line. It acts like an unbrakable wall, sometimes for hours.

I truely don’t think that I have a psychological problem when I analyze or decide to go for a trade. Spontainously I feel that I don’t need luck. I’m not after luck but I don’t need plain bad luck either.

Is there even such a thing as a working trading plan?
Can the price movement the next few tics and forward on really be predicted at all?

2

Spontainously I feel that I don’t need luck. I’m not after luck but I don’t need plain bad luck either.

This is the second time this week I have seen the word "luck"
used in a Forex context, there is no luck involved only good or
bad TA (technical analysis). Trades can go one of 2 ways up or down, discounting sideways as this is fact is still up or down.

So with this in mind this gives even a toss of a coin system a 50:50
chance. It therefore is in the money management of that 50:50
chance which holds the key.

“Let your profits run & stop your losers short”

I have had several weeks with profits earlier

Therefore your system works, but at the moment you are in the
negative side of the equation. The rules don’t say you have to win
1, lose 1, win 1, etc, it could be win 20, lose 20, win 10, lose 5, win 3,
lose 10, etc.

It is in the positive value of the winners, being greater in pip value
than the negative of the losers, where the profit is made.

I have not had a losing trade this week, do I think I have a 100%
proof infallible system? No I had 5 losers last week, but I made sure
that I pegged back the amount I lost in those losing trades & took
as much as I could out of this weeks winning trades.

If I do it the other way round, SL 20 pips away and my limit 10 pips I’ll still lose 100 times out of 100. Is there a mathematical explanation to that?

Under further analysis did these trades carry on down or up, was it
in fact your TA which was at fault, were you counter trend trading,
stop loss too close, times of news, etc.? The list is endless.

I can just take a random trade

No trades are random, they must all have a reason to be taken, managed
& either stopped short or profit taken.

I have a collegue and he is utterly dissapointed at me

It’s good to have a conscience, but does this “colleague” trade?
Do they know the Forex business?

Is there even such a thing as a working trading plan? Yes
Can the price movement the next few tics and forward on really be predicted at all?
I answered this early in the piece, either up or down, it is how you manage the wins & losses which counts.

“There is always somebody who thinks they can ice skate up hill” Wesley Snipes in Blade

:wishes: daydreamerforex

3

Thanks for your reply!
This week I can’t even complain :slight_smile:
Just as I did, the EURUSD drops giving me a 50 pip win, see?

No but frankly, I used the word luck the last time as well. I know that a system should give a positive win/lose ratio in the longer run and that luck has nothing to do with it. But beeing away to the bathroom or whatever only to come back and see that your anticipated movement just happened and you can sit there and se how much you didn’t win. Whereas the next time, everything is lining up, you take the trade and 1 second later the entire chart is completely different. When having done that a couple of times to many one doesn’t feel all too fortunate with the details.

Anyway, that: "Let your profits run & stop your losers short"
How?
I try to do just that but when I have a SL at 10 pips, It’s always hit. When I increase it I just lose more as it seems. What would a reasonable SL be on a 15 min chart? I always try to run my profit so that I don’t close my deals, I move my SL along giving me a chance of taking more. I really try but right up until now I only have short stopped losers to show up.

And sometimes, I’t so easy!!!

My system, after having evaluated a whole lot I must say is:
15 min chart
2 exponential moving averages, ema(4) and ema(10).
Slow stochastic(8,3,3).
When the stoch have been below 25, turned upwards, crossed, the ema(4) crosses the ema(10) from below and the stoch hasn’t passed the 50 level, I buy SL 10 pips behind. I look for 10-15 pips gain and move my SL to +/-0. If I get 20 pips I move my SL and lock in 10 pips.

Of course, if everything is upside down and stoch has been over 75, I sell.

How should I apply a good money management rule to this system?

Thanks for your time.

4

Make that a 90 pip gain now, and a weekly +:eek: