1 hour timeframe, NZD/USD, downward pennant, pennant formed with 5 bars.
The Ever Salient VIPER
This is for education only and is not investment or trading advise
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Man, tonightâs practice session was a non-event. I went to open a 70 tick chart in MetaTrader 4 (after spending 25 minutes trying to create a $100 20:1 leveraged demo account). Turns out, tick charts are not natively supported in MetaTrader 4.
Spent another 35 minutes installing different tick chart indicators and got none of them working. Fired up NinjaTrader, and boom, tick charts natively supported with historical tick data downloaded from NinjaTrader servers.
Looks like I will be buying a full license to NinjaTrader at some point in the future and only going with brokers that support NinjaTrader - sorry OANDA!
I have some good experience with ninjatrader, would def recommend it over metatrader 4. I am still learning it (and trading in general) but it really was the smoothest app for me
Hello everyone!
This is going to be my last post for a while. By that, I mean my last post on BP forums in their entirety. I found a system that I like, is easy for me to spot entries and exits, and is potentially profitable. The next step for me now is to backtest the system on various pairs and time frames to find the most profitable environment for the system.
I spent 20 hours this weekend working on my plan and initial backtesting. I estimate it will take me another 100 hours to finish the backtests on the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and AUD/USD pairs. I plan on testing entries on the 5 minute, 15 minute, hourly, and 4-hour charts. These tests only concern the entries, stops, and targets while in practice I will be adding higher time frame trend as a filter to which trades I take. For example, if my entry is on the 5-minute chart, then I look for matching trend on the 15-minute chart.
My goal is a 40% win rate with this system because I can only take trades that have a 2:1 risk reward ratio. Once I figure out which timeframes are most profitable based on entries during the time I have to trade I will be narrowing my initial portfolio down to two pairs. This will give me the ability to really focus in on each pair and also trade a bit larger position size than if I were trading 4-6 pairs.
I learned a lot from my time here, and I feel that I accelerated my progress greatly!
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Trade well dudely, Trade Well
The Ever With The Salutations VIPER
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Good luck and pop in and give us updates now and then! 
Hey all, I am back again with another trade analysis. Well, more of something that is on my radar. This is a swing / positional trade opportunity that I am watching, but if it hits I might try to drop down to a lower time frame and make several in and out trades.
EUR/USD finally made a move and I am calling it a bearish trend now. We have an initial high up there at 1.2100 with a move down to 1.1660 followed by a retracement up to 1.1887 followed by a move down to 1.1604. It looks like 1.1600 is developing into a minor support level so at this point I expect the market to retrace up to 1.1700 before falling to 1.1400. 1.1400 is a convergence of a weekly support zone, a 1:1 measured move, a minor daily support level, and a Fibonacci level. There is also a sloppy flag pattern (the pink lines) suggesting that the price is going to bounce up and then fall to 1.400.
My plan to attack this (with demo only, unfortunately) is to wait for the market to retrace up to around 1.1700 and then look for a bearish entry signal such as a lower time frame double top or a bearish engulfing candle, for at worst, price to fall back below 1.1630 after pushing up to 1.1700. Once that happens I am going to get short with a stop loss at 1.1886 and a target at 1.1400 for half the position.
If the target is hit, I will take half the position off as profit and evaluate if I want to keep the position on or get flat. If 1.1400 holds and price moves up again, we can look at that as a reversal back into a bullish trend as the bearish trend was simply a complex retracement in the overall bullish trend. If 1.1400 is violated I will hold my short open (or look at add size) and look to get flat at 1.1100. Finally, if we do hit 1.1100 and it doesnât hold, the price could fall down to 1.04.
Personally, I am not sold on the idea of hitting 1.1100 because that is a big move. I am thinking that price with either bounce off 1.1600 and continue up or bounce off 1.1600, retrace and then fall to 1.1400 before reversing back into a bullish trend.
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Had we seen the daily head and shoulders we would have been in and green at the neckline break, now I wonder, whoâs green on this little honey. 
Ever Ever Calculating VIPER
So I said I would try to drop to a lower time frame and make some in and out trades. I decided to take a quick break from work (shhh⌠donât tell my boss) and enter a trade on the 5 minute chart to try and catch my bullish retracement prediction. I am not real confident in this trade so maybe @TradeViper or the other experienced traders following this thread can comment.
Entry was at the purple line, with stops at the red line and targets at the green line. This gives me a 2.5 risk reward ratio so even though itâs a weak setup in my opinion, it requires a low success rate to be profitable. I entered where I did as I read the price as getting ready to break above 1.1610 which had been acting as a support level. I see a big bullish candle push up and then I entered the trade.
I chose my stop where I did because if price hits that level then the support failed to hold and price should drop hard and fast. In that case, I want to get out fast. If the bulls take over, the next place I expect resistance is at 1.1624 because that level acted as short-term support before failing at 7:55 AM.
Right now this trade is +$1.10 but again, I donât think I can call this an A+ trade.
It needs to break and base below 1600 to continue to be profitable. You need to remember on a 5 min entry in and out, take the bottom, especially at 1600 a whole/significant number. If you stay to long you will get caught in a reversal. We are looking at a 131.89 short Entry on the yuppie. In and out, 5 min is not for long term.
The Ever Quick Strike VIPER
Yuppie? Which pair is that?
EUR/JPY
The Ever Slithering VIPER
And the trade is completedâŚ
I had moved my stop loss to protect profits as it looked like the market as losing steam and was about the reverse. I had traded 10,000 units on this, so my profit ended up being around $3.00 on that trade. My total time in that trade was around 35 minutes.
Again, not really super confident about the trade. I did make virtual money in that trade but the setup and exit were more hunches and guesses that anything concrete that I can put my finger on. Because I canât easily derive a set of rules from this trade, I donât know that I could trade this trade consistently every time it presented itself.
There were two things I liked about this trade. First, the risk/reward profile. Second, that price was hovering around a support level and I was able to catch a small retracement. This move also identifies a new resistance level so that adds to our knowledge of the current market.
My next trade opportunity is going to be if the price drops below 1604 for a small short entry. I like that because it keeps with the bearish trend pattern that I identified on the higher time frame. My other potential play is to wait for the price to break above 6190 to indicate that the bullish move up is going to continue.
Just for Kicks, the is an interesting pennant forming on the 15min Yuppy.
The Ever Kicking VIPER
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So we just cancelled the 131.89 Yuppie, because the completion of the triangle /pennant invalidated the level I was looking at for the time being. We are looking at this formation to finish at an overshoot of 700, then back up to the mean. Or maybe not hehehehe
The Ever Speculative VIPER
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And there is your overshoot. Well thatâs all folks, it might go lower but on Moanday, and nothing to push it, I will apply the SOH strat.
The Ever Watching The New Season Of Stranger Things VIPER
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So I have been thinking about trading all day at work and I decided that I should probably keep a video diary of my trading. First, I can replay my trades at a slower speed to watch to see if I did something without realizing it. Second, I can capture a complete record along with voice notes of what I am thinking. Third, I can post them to a YouTube channel and people can comment on them - yes, I realize that I can just post the trades here but that means I need to take screenshots and write up my thought process. I can speak a lot faster than I can type and even think so this is more work.
The big question: if I did record and share my video diaries, would anyone find any value in watching them? I am certain people who are newer to trading than I am might learn a thing or two but my primary question is whether or not the more experienced traders will watch them and offer their thoughts on the trades I took and how I managed them.
Only if you wear a fright wig and Nixon mask. Hehehe
The Ever Frightful VIPER
Post some Amazon links and it just might happen
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For tonightâs practice session I decided to just spend some time watching the price action on USD/JPY and AUD/USD pairs. One thing that I find awfully intriguing is how price seems to level off and then reverse at seemingly random spots.
Example: USD/JPY drops, then climbed back up to 113.129. On the five minute charts price came up to 113.129 and closed there. The next two bars closed lower, then the following bar closed at 113.129 again. Looking left, I see another pair of bars that closed at 113.129 as well. The fact that this bars are closing at this level more than once in a short period of time is enough to make me a firm believer in nonrandom movement of price. However, why is 113.129 so special tonight and more importantly, how can I spot these levels earlier and use the in my trading?
I also had in my plan to trade the EUR/USD pair because it has the tightest spreads. However, the ATR on that pair is almost nonexistent this time of day while the USD/JPY and AUD/USD pairs have a fairly high ATR. I take this to mean that the EUR/USD is going to have little movement while the other pairs are going to have a lot bigger moves, correct?
Sometimes trading is so simple, and other times, like tonight, I feel like I will never figure it out.