Today is going to be my last trading day of the week. I don’t like to trade Fridays because I don’t work on Fridays so I am not in front of a computer all day. So far, I am -7.39% for my first week as a real money trader. I’d be lying if I said it didn’t bother me to have a rough start like this, but at the same time, this isn’t going to make me give up.
I certainly didn’t expect to be profitable this first week, but to be down nearly 10% when my maximum per week loss is 5% means I didn’t stick to the plan. In looking back, I made a lot of mistakes that I need to fix before I can ramp up my trading.
Here are my thoughts based on the last few days:
Was not disciplined enough to follow my plan on day 1
Didn’t treat my $100 account like it was my lifeline as a $100,000 account would be
If I can’t make pennies on a $100 account, why should I think I can make dollars on a $1,000 account?
Once I started being disciplined, I noticed that I need to have a good range strategy - this weekend, going to learn how to trade breakouts and boxes
Need to start keeping a journal of trading
Is my strategy any good? Lost on 100% of trades but I suspect I don’t have enough data to judge it yet
Perhaps the 15 minute chart isn’t a good place for me - maybe try the 5 minute or the hourly chart
Need to re-read the babypips course and take good notes, lots of info about trading fundamentals there
This is why I am trading a small account. A 7% loss on a $100 account is only $7 - not going to bankrupt me. Now if I was trading a $100,000 account that would be a harder loss to deal with. I am probably not going to be taking any trades in my real account tonight and am just going to focus on reading up on the weak points and writing a one page engagement summary to tape up next to my monitor to remind me how to consistently approach the market.
Good job, also don’t forget to look at the 4 hr O/C ranges, and the 15 min wicks and tails to see if it is even worth risking one cent on the market you are in.
The Ever Advising With “New And Fantastic Never Thought Of By Mikey” Ideas VIPER
Mike Huddleston of ICT fame. Just horrible, can’t trade, obnoxious, in fact as one of my waaaayyyy distant neighbors would say “A noxious weed of a person”. Hehhehehehehe
Man, looking at the USD/CAD 15 minute chart makes me think I need to learn how to trade pullbacks and add them to my strategy. I have been seeing quite a few big moves in the market this week after a small pullback. Ranges and pullbacks might be the best place for me to put my focus right now.
It’s a new trading week. I am going to pretend that last week didn’t happen and approach these markets with cautious optimism. My plan this week is to keep it simple. I am going to trade pullbacks on the hourly chart using the 4-hour chart for directional bias. For example, if the 4-hour chart is bearish, I am only going to take short trades on the hourly chart, so I will need to wait until the market comes up to retest a resistance level before entering. Stops and targets will be based structure levels and each order will be sized to risk no more than $1.00 per trade.
My goal this week is to have 100% of my trades follow my rules exactly, and to video record each and every trade I take to post to my YouTube channel. This will force me to focus on process, not profits.
Currently, I have one open position that is 25 pips in the profit. USD/CAD long entry at 1.27638 with targets at 1.28045 and stop at 1.27517. As market put in new higher lows in this move I have been moving my stop to minimize risk. This trade was taken as a pullback trade and I am hoping the recent news about the Trump campaign weakens the dollar and pushes this trade to profit targets (assuming I am right that being long USD/CAD means I am short the USD).
Good luck everyone and may your trades always follow your rules!
Yeah I know… I figure we still have at least two good trading days this week. Plus there should still be some activity in the Asian sessions in the later half of the week. As long as the markets are open, I want to trade them
Ok, so good opportunity to build strong risk control habits Do you think that will be the case all week or just Wed-Fri leaving Monday and Tuesday relatively normal?
Well, from what I know, the higher level traders are already in vacy mode, unless there is some massive event, everyone is “Chillin”. The EURO, even with all of the theoretical happenings this weekend, with Oma Merkel, did not move, also, it is my observation that the rate hike is baked in, and unless the Fed comes right out and says no hike, it will not move this week, maybe we will get some more movement next week. As we head into Dec, there generally is a pickup in VOL, Momo, and Volatility, as some scramble to meet bonus goals at the end of the year. But, I doubt there will be three digit moves between the two weeks.
While others may disagree, I’ve come to feel that it is better to focus on one particular setup, refining it over time until you have maximized the profit potential of that strategy. Don’t chase the market; wait for the conditions you have chosen that maximize your odds, and then take that trade.
So smaller moves will mean smaller targets, and with my 2:1 risk reward rule that means even smaller stops. Smaller stops mean higher probability of getting stopped out by market noise or maintaining larger stops to counter the market noise making me take on more risk. I don’t like taking on more risk, so I should expect very few trading opportunities this week and when I do get into a trade I need to expect it to take longer to complete as the market is moving slower.
Unless of course something drastic happens somewhere… So maybe you can help clarify something in my mind… when large institutional traders take a break, the market doesn’t move as much. As a retail trader, I need the market to move in order to make my profit because I am trading pennies compared to the big guys. A 5 pip move for me doesn’t mean as much as a 5 pip move for an institutional trader because my position size is way smaller. Therefore price movement is generally the result of the big boys fighting it out and I am just making bets on who wins the fight in a manner of speaking. So when the big boys aren’t doing much, there is not much reason for me to risk my capital because the upside isn’t there. Does that sound about right or am I messing something up somewhere?
Side note… just closed my USD/CAD trade 10 pips short of profit target because I got scared. Still made $1.20 (31 pips) on the trade which is a 12% return (based on my starting balance of $100), but that is irrelevant because I didn’t follow my process or rules.
I have kind of done that. I stopped trading double tops and bottoms and am now using pullback trades to catch trend movements and range trades for consolidating markets. Trying to trade pullbacks while in a range is a very risky game as price tends to be erratic within the range and especially as it approaches the mean of that range.
Justa quick note JMiester,
replace the (2:1) + Long Term (Low Quantity) / Lower Probability with
(1.3:1) + Short Term (High Quantity) / High Probability
See if it works out mathematically. Just something to think about, time factor, 3 to 4 hrs absolute max.
That sounds like a good system for trading choppy markets. With 3-4 hours max time in trade, these trades would need to be either 1 (240 bars) or 5-minute (48 bars) charts (maybe 15 (16 bars) minutes) or range charts. Mathematically the system will be break even around 50%, with profitability increasing as win rate goes up. It almost feels like its designed to play on the erratic price movements within consolidating (ranging) markets.
If your tagline and username play into this, then it is designed for quick hits in the market. I am going to guess that it is a momentum based trade because those offer high win rates as the market is basically saying “Hey I am going to do this now…” and then does it. However, you have to strike quick, like a snake (viper), to get in and capture that move, then you are out again real quick with profits and looking for the next place to strike, rather than what I am doing by analyzing higher time frames to look for bigger moves.
Over the long run, this system may get 2-3 times more trades than my system would, so could potentially make more money. Now that I think of it, it sounds a lot like the @_bob box on range charts system.
Please don’t think I’m being an ass (with these two comments). I don’t want to come across as one correcting your posts. I genuinely enjoy reading this thread, and can see you’ve come along way on your trading journey from when you started it. You have the passion, dedication and right mind set to be successful!
