[B]Date: 22nd September 2025.
Gold Hits Records, Dollar Consolidates Ahead of Fed, NZDUSD at Key Level.[/B]
PBOC Keeps Policy Steady but Signals Flexibility
China’s central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, said monetary policy will remain focused on the domestic economy, balancing support for growth with the stability of financial institutions. At its latest meeting, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) left the loan prime rates unchanged for a fourth straight month, keeping the one-year rate at 3.0% and the five-year at 3.5%.
Although rates are at record lows, markets still expect additional easing later this year. In the run-up to the Golden Week holiday, the PBOC injected nearly 300 billion yuan into the banking system via 14-day reverse repos, a tool not used since January. Local media also report that the central bank intends to deploy this instrument more flexibly rather than confining it to pre-holiday periods.
Equities Mixed Across Regions
Equity markets started the week on a mixed note. In Europe, the DAX fell 0.5% and the Euro Stoxx 50 dipped 0.2%, while the FTSE 100 edged 0.1% higher. Asian markets also diverged: the Nikkei gained 0.99% and the CSI 300 rose 0.5%, but the Hang Seng dropped 0.8%. US futures were modestly lower in early trading. Government bonds posted a patchy performance. The UK 10-year gilt yield slipped 1.2 basis points to 4.70%, and the German 10-year yield was little changed at 2.74%. Eurozone spreads widened as peripheral debt lagged; notably, the French 10-year yield edged above the Italian equivalent.
Dollar Consolidates Ahead of Fed Speakers
The dollar initially dipped on the Fed’s latest rate cut but reversed as traders reassessed the outlook. The FOMC’s dot plot showed a narrow majority projecting two more cuts in 2025 and just one in 2026, fewer than markets had expected.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the cut as a “risk-management” move amid soft labour-market data but otherwise sounded neutral. Strong US jobless claims the following day gave the greenback an additional lift. Going forward, incoming data will guide rate expectations and dollar direction.
The US dollar index eased slightly to 97.48 as most major pairs traded within tight ranges. EURUSD was up 0.3% at 1.177, GBPUSD gained 0.2% to 1.349, and USDJPY held steady at 147.84. Investors are now waiting for a series of Federal Reserve speeches this week for fresh clues on the rate outlook.
Gold and Silver Extend Gains
Gold pushed to fresh record highs as inflows into exchange-traded funds reached a three-year peak. Expectations of further Fed rate cuts keep gold in demand as the dollar inches down. Haven flows also keep gold underpinned, with tensions in the Middle East adding support. There is also lingering concern that Russia’s war with Ukraine could escalate, as hopes of a quick peace deal fade. The precious metal is up 1.2% on the day at USD 3727.40 per ounce.
Silver also advanced, climbing 1.6% to a two-week high, underpinned by tight supply and strong fundamentals. Copper recovered some of last week’s losses after Chile’s state-owned miner signaled delays at its El Teniente operation.
Oil Under Pressure Despite Geopolitical Risks
Oil prices inched down last week and have remained under pressure on Monday, as the market heads for a sizable supply overhang. Iraq has increased oil exports, and OPEC+ continues to roll back production cuts. Short term supply risks, meanwhile, are helping to soften the downtrend in prices. The front end WTI contract is down -0.7% at USD 61.97 per barrel, Brent is down -0.7% at USD 66.24 per barrel. There were reports of further Russian airstrikes on western Ukraine - near the Polish border. Coupled with airspace violations in Estonia and reports that a Russian military aircraft entered neutral Baltic airspace that added to concern of a possible widening of the conflict and further disruptions of energy supply. The EU unveiled its latest sanctions package against Russia last week, which included a ban on LNG imports and restrictions on 118 additional shadow vessels. Tensions in the Middle East also remain in focus and complicate the supply outlook.
NZD Under Pressure After Dovish RBNZ
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand adopted a more dovish stance at its last meeting, projecting two further rate cuts and revealing that a larger 50-basis-point reduction had been actively discussed. Two members even voted for it. Last week’s downside surprise in New Zealand GDP strengthened bets on a bigger cut at the next meeting, weighing on the NZD.
NZDUSD Technical View
NZDUSD has retraced back to a key support zone near 0.5850 on the daily chart, where buyers are trying to defend the level with a defined risk just below support. A sustained bounce from here could open the way for a move towards the 0.6050 resistance area.
However, if the pair breaks decisively below 0.5850, sellers are likely to press their advantage and target the next major support around 0.57.
Zooming in, the hourly chart shows price action coiling between 0.5863 resistance and 0.5843 support, suggesting a tight range ahead of a potential breakout. A move above 0.5863 could trigger a pullback to the 0.59 handle, while a break under 0.5843 would signal an extension of the sell-off.
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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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[B]Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets
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