I believe I have found a valid set up on the AUD/USD.
There is a low on 5/5/11, followed by a lower low today. I entered at the top of the “lower low” candle, at 1.0633, with a stop at 1.0615 (now at break even). Aiming for 1.06700 as main target for now.
Currently up 30+ pips on this.
Interestingly, the bullishness on the USD seems to have stalled quite dramatically for the time being. I certainly lost a few pips trying to go long on USD. Perhaps what we are seeing is simply a retracement as people take in the recent economic data that has been released.
I will get a chart up tonight and see what you think.
Good Morning and Good trade TWHM, Seems your TP is already hit. I agree with you on the USD bulls seemingly losing steam. When I look at the weekly charts the trend still says UP. Currently long on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD and EUR/JPY. Will see if the uptrend resumes from here. But managing with care for now.
Maybe brokers make the difference on the TP, my chart shows that we hit 1.0672 on the last H1 candle.
I realized thats what you meant though, higher low and not lower low. AUD/USD is now buying off an H4 PVSL round about where your entry price is, so some decent buying could take place from here, once 1.0690 breaks.
Also, the trade wont always work out, but once you are entering based on your setup rules it makes it a good trade, even if/when it turns out to be a loser.
Sorry about the lack of charts in this post. I have been trying to upload them but I’m having a nightmare doing it.
I will get them up to discuss at some point in the near future though.
Anyway;
yes, TP was hit while I was on my way home. Seems I can make more pips when I am not around haha.
It seems I was right on the TP in the right place as it has consolidated back around that area for now. As the USD is a bit uncertain to me for now, I wont be dissapointed if it turns out I could have gone further.
I made the trade on OANDA FX platform which is quite crude.
Interesting thing to watch: the Weekly EUR/USD is currently ~around the 23% fib line. could be time for another bounce longer. I’m certainly watching that one. However, on an even longer TF (getting into position trading now) it is roughly at the top of a range it has beein in for a long time. Some Strong resistance levels coming up.
Anyway, thats enough for today. My head is swimming a bit.
Yesterday’s success seems to be continuing.
Had 2 setups on the USD/JPY and the EUR/USD.
Unfortunately the JPY Short trade missed my TP over night by 3 pips. I was short @ 80.69 with target of 80.3. Closed the trade now @ 80.54
EUR USD: Long at 1.43- Closed at break even, as This was not a valid set up and there is a european and american news release today; oh, and its friday. . I will watch and see what the result would have been.
I am on my way to my target of 1% profit a week regularly.
I am just able to get online to view the market since yesterday afternoon. Seems longs are still holding, so will continue to hold and manage. Good Trading TWHM. Keep it Going!
I have another set up on the Eur/Usd. I am currently short at 1.4190 with TP targeting ~1.4100 and SL on 1.424. there is a lower low, (and i know you dont use it, but) the 50 ema is still significantly down. lets hope this is a winner!
Hi TWHM,
Yes I had a very quiet and restful weekend thanks. How was yours? That short setup looked pretty good to me but I chose to trade just the GBP/USD and EUR/JPY Shorts at 1.6235 and 114.86 instead. We are still looking good for continued selling at this moment. The Longs on Thursday/Friday were just retracements it seems. GU could be looking for 1.5940 (or as low as 1.5660) and EY 111.50 or lower. I used to use Moving Averages but found that they did not influence my results. Good Trading to you!
Yes I had a good weekend. I have already met my target of 1% a week for this week. My EUR/USD was closed early this morning by my trail stop. still made 30 Pips from it. Havent had a chance to look at the charts today.
Shorts closed for +181pips. Counter Short entry on H1 EUR/USD taken. Long Triggered on H1 GBP and EUR/JPY as well, pairs looking rather bullish at the moment.
Good Morning and thanks TWHM. Such is trading. If we follow this market we become tempted to ride every wave. So I tell myself its a huge cake that each person takes a bite out of each week. Once my bit reaches 300-500 pips, I’m out.
I will be posting an update on the method this week which you may find quite helpful and interesting.
300-500 pips a week is out of my reach for the moment. I am averaging around 70-130, but that is only using 2/3 pairs. I am also not losing as many pips as before. I think so far this week I have lost around 15, and I am up 60. compared to about 2 weeks ago I was roughly losing more like 40pips and gaining 50. I am not getting into as many trades as I was, but fewer and fewer are going against me.
Just closed my Short limit order on EUR/USD for +25. I got out because, while on the daily it is down, there are some buy set ups on the 4h, which are making me uncomfortable and unsure which way it is going, and I wasnt planning on trading this week due to other commitments with my time.
In regards to the update; I cant wait! I would love to know more about how you use fractals. When I look at your example charts, I see that you disregard some of the fractal highs/Lows. Would you be able to explain which ones you count or is it just a case of opportunities missed?
Hi TWHM, I am glad to hear that you are reducing losses and beginning to gain. Our goals may be different but the principal goal of gaining and consistently is commonly shared. I see what you mean where the H4 counter setups are concerned and share the same view. The GBP is weak but the EUR is buying. If you can show me some examples of questions you have where the fractals are concerned I will do my best to explain. But it may very well have been missed opportunities.
I will look for the example I had in mind and see what you think.
It may be that I dont fully understand fractals and how they are formed. from what I can tell, they are formed when
a high occurs,
-then the next candle creates a higher high,
-then the next candle creates a lower high.
my only problem is that this can happen very very frequently, and yet being able to tell the tradable ones from the chaff is very tricky. do you have a way of filtering them?
Interesting that you say we have differing goals. In what sense do you say that?
Hey Bank! I’m really looking forward to reading your update, I was about to ask for some clarification on your system, I’ve been struggling to recognize PVSH and PVSL points. I’m close to “getting it” but always looking to learn more. Plus i’ve been so busy with the real job that I have barely been able to look at charts in the last 2 weeks…such is life. Great job this week! Nothing like hitting your weekly target on Tuesday
