Symbol EURUSD (Euro vs US Dollar)
Period 4 Hours (H4) 2011.01.23 17:00 - 2011.02.17 20:00 (2011.01.23 - 2011.02.18)
Model Every tick (the most precise method based on all available least timeframes)
Parameters lot=1; tprofit=1000; stloss=1000;
Bars in test 1121 Ticks modelled 1022138 Modelling quality 72.18%
Mismatched charts errors 0
Initial deposit 500.00
Total net profit 88.63 Gross profit 522.25 Gross loss -433.62
Profit factor 1.20 Expected payoff 4.43
Absolute drawdown 13.80 Maximal drawdown 161.54 (22.79%) Relative drawdown 22.79% (161.54)
Total trades 20 Short positions (won %) 10 (50.00%) Long positions (won %) 10 (60.00%)
Profit trades (% of total) 11 (55.00%) Loss trades (% of total) 9 (45.00%)
Largest profit trade 70.26 loss trade -67.39
Average profit trade 47.48 loss trade -48.18
Maximum consecutive wins (profit in money) 4 (180.10) consecutive losses (loss in money) 3 (-133.64)
Maximal consecutive profit (count of wins) 180.10 (4) consecutive loss (count of losses) -133.64 (3)
Average consecutive wins 2 consecutive losses 2
After that we saw some SELL candle patterns developing with signs of weakness as the following 2 hours failed off the 11% of the last swing. Coupled with that, we failed to break or close above last weeks’s high.
Conclusion is that we may be looking to SELL off this 11% @ 1.3695 with break even at 1.3620 and minimum target @ 1.3563 to 1.3543. Target of interest will be 1.3469 for sellers should we go south.
Possible downside threat on GBP/USD which closed below the 11% resistance of the last H1 swing. Testing will be done on market open so we wait and see. Continuation to 1.6280/1.6300 also possible before any pullback or selling.
Yes bank, in conjuction with technical analysis and basic candlestick patterns like the inside bar,pin bars and doji reversal patterns…but mainly the entries on the low/high of the last swing high/low
As well bank, remember I use a Rsi for ob/os and a 55ema for visual trend confirmation, if price is above the ema than I look for longs and vice versa, almost forgot to mention fibs too!!!
Ok good good! I spent some time working on the entries on the fibs as well which should tremendously help with entries, stops and take profit and in some regards the trend.
Bank, take a look at the 4hr eur/gbp, I see a inside bar forming and just so happens to form around a confluence area of the of the 50ema and in between the 50% and 38.2% fibo from the swing high of 2/9/11 to the swing low of 2/15/11
im thinking of shorting the eur/gbp on the break of the low on .84166
Even though we are stuck below the 0.8437 11% resistance, there are a couple of things to look out for should you take the short. Please see the chart below…0.8396-0.8400 is a crucial level to watch for Upward reversal. So break even early on that trade plan.
I’m short from 1.6254 using 30M 11%, waiting for H4 11% short level to trigger at 1.6249. Is it the fractal/support break at that level that you are shorting?
im pulling my eur/gbp trade off the table for now as a new high was made on the 4hr,I will wait to see if the new high holds true and gives a signal for a reversal
