High Probability Trading

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#21

I don’t need to break away from anything that I believe. I have been trading for years with 100% mechanical systems and have done quite well. Perhaps you need to change your beliefs. 100% mechanical system can make money, and it doesn’t matter who the trader is. From my own observations, most traders who use this level of discretion don’t last very long. I have no idea how long raging bull has been trading, but I would venture to guess that it has not been very long.

The reason behind why currencies move really doesn’t matter. You completely missed my point. We can study price action all day long, and still not have a clue as to how it’s applied in a real time trading environment. In forex this is especially true, because you will notice that price does not always follow some basic rules like support becoming resistance, resistance becoming support, higher highs, lower lows, higher lows, lower highs, etc.

You can clearly see this on any 1 hour chart you pull up of GBP/USD or GBP/JPY. Price will spike above resistance or below support and then reverse. It can continue to trend in one direction for weeks with shallow retracements. Or price will hit a previous peak or trough and break right through it with no pullback whatsoever. With stocks, price will usually at least stop at a previous support/resistance level before it takes off again. This isn’t always the case with currency pairs.

Another example would be when price starts trending strongly in one direction and we are looking to enter on the pullback. The pullbacks are usually much more shallow than you would expect to see with stocks. Price action’s basic rules would tell us to enter long at support, where support was the previous resistance level. However, price usually does not reach this level. And if price does reach this level, it’s much more likely that the trend has reversed.

#22

Perhaps that is the problem. You’re applying “rules” to price action and baffled when it doesn’t obey.

S/R is nothing more than trader sentiment areas. If price blows through them, then the hope we put into that level was never correct in the first place. S/R is a guideline for trading positions, nothing more…and it’s prone to failure just like anything else.

Again, and just like mechanical systems, if price was predictable that much and that often, we’d all be rich off an increasingly flattening market.

You didn’t quantify this to any degree…so…ok.

The worst thing you can do, [I]particularly in a forum specifically designed for NEW traders[/I] is to try and shake the faith in a method that a trader has been using successfully. As an “experienced” trader, I’m suprised you didn’t recognize this before you posted you’re disagreement of Ragingbulls method. Or at the least, worded it a bit more diplomatically and respectfully.

Many of the systems presented on this forum are discretionary to some degree. Including the Cowabunga system that has rules to the entry and exit, but clearly the author has taken position based on discretion, be it an entry or exit. I don’t pay much mind to the ridiculus arguments of whether mechanical systems are better than discretionary systems…those are stupid, immature arguments that only provide evidence of both sides lack of experience. I’ve traded both and I know what works [B]FOR ME.[/B]

#23

here is a trendline analysis that I use and has brought me great success in identifying profit targets!!!

#24

I remember this from when it first emerged on FF and MoneyTec. Good method and a lot of people have seen good, consistent results. I have a friend who trades this method almost exclusively. Mostly because he was a struggling trader for a number of years and he really clicked with this method.

It was going pretty strong there on FF for a while before it became too popular and then everyone wanted an EA written for it. Then it kinda fell outa favor for a bit; but the methodology is sound and based in tried and true trading practices.

#25

courtesy dailyfx:

UK � The UK calendar will remain relatively quiet in the days ahead, with few noteworthy reports due until next week�s Bank of England Minutes from its most recent meeting. In the meantime, Rightmove House Prices have an off-chance of forcing volatility in GBP pairs. Given a clear focus on housing performance, traders may look to trade off of any particularly large surprises in the result. Otherwise we will look to the BoE minutes to drive major moves in the GBP. The later second revision to GDP may likewise bring some volatility to Pound pairs, with any significant revisions to potentially shift sentiment for future growth.

US � The US economic calendar is limited to relatively second-tier economic data for the coming holiday-shortened week, except to note the key release of Minutes from the October 31 FOMC meeting. All eyes will turn to the Fed text to gauge the likelihood of a further interest rate cut at the central bank�s December 11 meeting. Today�s speech by Fed Governor Richard Kroszner suggests that we will see a much more hawkish text than current interest rate expectations have priced in. As such, it will be very important to watch how rate expectations shift in the wake of the report�especially as it is likely to drive large moves in the US dollar.

#26

well as the rightmove house for gbp came out today and pointed out what was expected that the real estate market is down. Thus giving evidence to support the short signal on the 4hr chart. Since sometimes I cannot trade the london open due to the fact that I work in the morning am (est. time) I entered the trade at the price of 225.72 at 11:39…

As of yesterday (sunday the 18th) I had a long position open that was a continuation of the trend from last week ending friday, for a moment I was up 30 pips and as of the london open I was stopped out for a loss of 40 pips…My mistake was not waiting to the economic news came out!!!..oh well you live and learn…