Hikaros Trade Journal

[Hikaros]

JOURNAL UPDATE TUESDAY 27/02/2018

USD/JPY

I closed my trade on the pair!

-35 pips!

Everybody is buying USD nowadays due to the increase in interest rates ahead!

USD/CHF

I am short at 0.93800. It went up but I think it will go down again on the news of Swiss on the next couple of days!

EUR/USD

Went down to the resistance line!

Never gave me a confirmation candlestick so I haven’t traded it yet!

GBP/USD

Just gave me a hammer to buy on H4 at the resistance level that closed above R1 Pivot line!

Also there is the 0.786 fib line so I bought it!

My target is at 1.40000

[dudupips]

It s time to short Usdjpy.
What s your opinion?

[anon81929759]

@dudupips

It s time to short Usdjpy.
What s your opinion?

@dudupips
who… Me ??

hey mate, when asking someone something, so as to be clear, put the @symbol before their name so we know who you are talking to
at least put their name.

so… if you are asking me, i would say this…

• firstly i don’t trade this currency… but ok, let’s have a look

SO YOU’RE SAYING IT’S A GOOD TIME TO SHORT IT … ARE YOU ?

EDIT : As a result of lack of comittment on your part
i have edited my answer to be as follows…

MY OPINION IS YOUR WRONG
AS IS SELF EVIDENT ON THE CHART
if you do your analysis correctly
this should be obvious
good luck

there you go 5 Lines and 1 Picture… Just like you did… Fair’s Fair

[dudupips]

thanks
@anon81929759
u are professional.

[anon81929759]

You’re Welcome
but for the record, what was your opinion
Why did you decide it should go short ?

i mean, i put up all this information to answer your question.
you didn’t answer mine

[dudupips]

@anon81929759
here

Adventure Island

I short usdjpy @107.138 sl 108.138 tp 105.138 Usdjpy in The range 114.00-108.20 longtime. Now seems like breaking out support line 108.20 and then downside. [image]

[Hikaros]

Hello dudu,

After the US said that they will increase interests rate several times this year, I believe long term traders are buying USD.

USD/JPY is one of the best pairs to buy in the long term because BOJ has an interest rate of -0.1% and the FED has an interest rate of 1.5% (that will go higher on the next few months).

My technical analysis says sell but fundamentals stop me!

[dudupips]

@Hikaros
Are u from Japan? U know currency war
Now is starting. Increasing rates in fact
hurts country economic.
Yes Usa increase and increase rates.But
u see Usdjpy Not bull upside.
Maybe devaluation is a good strategy for most country even Usa.

[Hikaros]

No, I am from UK mate.

Devaluation is good for country’s economy but the currency of that country will go down.

That’s because they will spend more and more and the currency will loose it’s value.

That’s what I see on the Monthly.

[Hikaros]

JOURNAL UPDATE WEDNESDAY 28/02/2018

I just bought EUR/USD.

It hit the support line + RSI divergence + a bull candle with a wick

TP on the Pivot and SL on the S1 Pivot.

[anon81929759]

i think this is a smart trade.

also re this

It hit the resistance

correct me if i’m wrong, but dont’ you mean SUPPORT

i’m assuming you are referring to the pink line under the green 1.22255
that would be a support line… right ?

or are you talking about the resistance at 1.23472 ??

either way, if you are buying at this point and your T/P is at the Pivot, i think you’ll be good
i think you could even lower your S/L but hey… it’s your Risk calculation, once you place a trade, stick to it

[Hikaros]

Yes, I mean support. ( I edit it)

I still don’t have certain rules for entry, SL or TP.

I try to gather information about price action and I am trying to write some rules.

I need a plan and I need to stick with it, as you say.

Now… I am just trying to find that plan… and I am trading blind!

Eventually, I need a PLAN with RULES!

For example, I always try to set my TP and SL at Pivot lines + resistance. This is where I am trying to base my rules for SL and TP.

Here is the H4 chart.

Support + S1 pivot for SL

Risk ratio 1:1.

[anon81929759]

Yes, I mean support

i thought so hehe… but i wasn’t sure.

I still don’t have certain rules for entry, SL or TP.

ok, well S/L … calculate is so you can put it on S2 instead of S1 if possible
basically you find the first support point then find the one below it and put it there. but again this is not a hard and fast rule. it depends on the instrument and how it behaves, but to begin with , you can use this rule

T/P - there’s 2 ways to approach it
Way 1 - don’t put it too far off
so… see that big drop of red candles… well. MEASURE HALF WAY and put your T/P anywhere you like between the entry and that Half way Point
which you have and it HAPPENS TO BE THE PIVOT POINT
and IT’S THE PIVOT POINT FOR A REASON… as well

so what you’re doing is correct

You see mate, even if it goes low again, and if you have your S/P as S2 there is a very good chance that you can break even, so what you’re doing here is good

Now
WAY 2. You let price get up a bit , say about half way to the T/P then move your stop loss line to be 1 pip in profit or 2 pips if you like
when you do this… you have no risk
before you this… YOU HAVE RISK

the idea is… to miniize risk wherever possible

so let’s now go back to this…

I need a plan and I need to stick with it, as you say.

so… am i now changing the plan ?
NO… NOT REALLY
you see when people say, put a S/L on and don’t move it
they mean DON’T INCREASE IT

there is nothing wrong with decreasing the risk

so if you want to start a strategy, use that HALF WAY RULE if you like
and you use that 2 levels lower rule or higher (Depending on what applies) for the stop loss

For example, I always try to set my TP and SL at Pivot lines + resistance. This is where I am trying to base my rules for SL and TP.

No… don’t set them AT PIVOT LINES
offsett it off the line by around 15 pips or so, Never go right on the line
Same goes for T/P
the idea is… if it hits the pivot point and it likely will, you don’t want to get stopped out when it’s gonna bounce off the line
but … if it goes 15-20 pips through the line… THAT’S DIFFERENT, that’s a loss
as with T/P what if it doesn’t reach the line by 2 pips, so… set your T/P around 10 pips off the lline, Below it if buying.

Risk ratio 1:1.

as for Risk to Reward hehe
don’t get too hung up on the whole 1:1 thing minimum ok

you could have 3 times the risk and 1 part reward and all you need to do is make sure that you get 4 trades before you get a loss
so let’s say you have a take profit of 30 pips
and a stop loss of 90 pips
well . it’s more likely that it will hit the 30 pips before the 90 even after 5 or 6 trades
so keep that in mind as well

but you are doing ok so far.

[Hikaros]

GBP/USD

@Hikaros

Just gave me a hammer to buy on H4 at the resistance level that closed above R1 Pivot line!

Also there is the 0.786 fib line so I bought it!

My target is at 1.40000

This was a really bad trade. This is how I see it now!

This is what I should have traded. The beginning of the downtrend!

[Hikaros]

EUR/USD

I took a long trade earlier today based on the RSI divergence + support line (green arrow)

I must add a rule to this reversal pattern.

‘Wait for a candle to break above the channel and then enter the trade.’

[anon81929759]

This was a really bad trade. This is how I see it now!

i disagree, i still say Buy

[Hikaros]

@anon81929759

i disagree, i still say Buy

On GBP/USD?

Why?

I just made some rules for one of my trending strategies and the GBP/USD is a good example too.

Here it is!

Hikaros Fibonacci trending strategy!

Look at GBP/USD (vertical green arrow):

Well, it doesn’t meet all my requirements but still, I consider it to be in downtrend!

BTW thanks Martin for your feedback and time.

[anon81929759]

I consider it to be in downtrend!

ok… so, you’re saying you would sell here , is that correct ?
do you what you think is correct.

My opinion is , i would buy

now… you asked this…

On GBP/USD?

Why?

Short answer… Experience Tells me i should.
i don’t trade this pair and i don’t watch it everyday, but just looking at this Daily chart, my experience tells me Buying the way to go

but, you do what you think is right at the end of the day.
the Truth is… ON THIS ONE TRADE, either one of use could be correct, it doesn’t mean anything to be honest

Now… on the other hand,
if me and you were to sit down and trade together over like 100 trades and let’s say i was to pick 90 out of 100 correctly, then clearly i would be right and you’d be wrong

if you however picked 90 out of 100 then i’d have to admit that you are right and i’m wrong

but on one or two trades… it means nothing

so at the end of the day, follow your system , because that’s what you are developing
if you are wrong, you’ll learn it in due course, but i should not interfere with the learning process

if you are right, then you shouldn’t listen to me anyway

so… do what you think is right and what your system and experience tells you you should do , that’s all you can do at the end fo the day.

be cool

[Hikaros]

@anon81929759

i don’t trade this pair and i don’t watch it everyday, but just looking at this Daily chart, my experience tells me Buying the way to go

Yes, I had this support on the Daily… That’s why I took this long trade.

And looking down to the H4 price did respect that line several times!

Price started to make LH and LL, that means downtrend may be starting!

A dojii candlestick that bearly touches that support line is not a reason to enter long.

That’s why I consider it a bad trade!

[anon81929759]

Price started to make LH and LL, that means downtrend may be starting!

no… it’s doesn’t necessarily mean that,

A dojii candlestick that bearly touches that support line is not a reason to enter long.

No it’s not, Nor is a factor in going short, FYI, i didn’t go long for this reason

That’s why I consider it a bad trade!

Try not to take this offensively…ok
but , if these are the reasons you considered LONG to be a bad trade, then… what can i say…
you are looking at the chart for face value (from a TEXT BOOK approach)
all these things that you are looking at are not really real.

but … again
you have your way of trading, i have mine
and i don’t want to interfere with your learning or your way of trading

it’s best if you learn these things on your own.

see, You might now ask me, “ok martin, so explain it to me” hehe
I’m not here for that, that is a big long topic that took me a few years to figure out and even if i explained it to you, you’d probably debate the point and i’d have to put in a lot of effort to convince you , which most likely won’t happen .

so… it’s sort of not really worth the effort
i can just tell you IN MY OPINION, i think LONG is the trade
you will disagree

and i think we should leave it there, because (Even though i like you , you’re cool and all) if i stopped to convince every newbie of stuff like this, i’d be here forever

simply stated, my experience tells me the right move here is to go long,
i trust my experience in my trading and i consistantly make money and a lot of mind you (and that’s the truth)

Now, by comparison (and not to belittle you) but instead just to give you something to consider,
Are you consistantly profitable and , let’s say , do you make more than $10,000 a day (sounds like BS… right, i assure you it’s not) but i’m not here to prove what i earn

the question simply stated is…
Are you consistant and can earn over $10k a day
if the answer is No (which i imagine it is) Respectfully, then i ask you to consider MY EXPERIENCE

if you want to reject it, that’s fine, like i said, it’s your learning path, and i’d rather not interfere, if i can help you , i will help, but something like this gets discovered if you HAVE ENOUGH SCREEN TIME (it’s really as simple as that)

so… Be Cool
let’s see how the trade unfolds
but like i said , 1 trade or a few trades doesn’t really prove anything, so again… Stick with what your doing for now, that’s my advice
but i think it also would be useful to consider what i’m saying and maybe to try it on demo just for fun, see what happesn

be cool