Homelessness and violence

Hi,
Good counter. I shall try to explain how we may “make or do more”. Please bear with me on this. There is nothing new here, except that my recent area of interest in crypto has brought this full circle from my experiences of the 1970s and 1980s.
Crypto is all about new currencies, but if we are to learn anything about crypto useful to us as individuals, it is a deeper understanding of what is lovingly referred to as the phenomenon of “impermanent loss” in providing liquidity pairs to extreme promises of annual APR figures in the tens of thousands.
I failed to understand this term a few months ago, and it was the extraordinary use of the word “impermanent” in describing the phenomenon that took me a while to understand, until I understood 2 or 3 examples of it relating to my own portfolio. Like many things in our wonderful world of finance, the use of this word relating to crypto currencies I now loosely describe as “smoke and mirrors”. On a cynical day I may refer to it as “snake oil” or just downright misdirection.

All those snake oil salesmen are doing in crypto is extending what has been practiced for centuries in the treatment of fiat currencies by historical governments, be they socialist or capitalist. As my wife sometimes says “same sh_t, different smell”.

It relates to debasement of currency. And the behaviour of the fiats is no different than the behaviour of the cryptos. They lose their buying power over time. But the cryptos do not yet have the kudos or “backing” of jurisdictional governments to make their use or misuse “acceptable” to the public.

I refer, of course, to the stealth tax called inflation.

First agreement with your macroeconomic figures. I broadly agree with your figures, and provide links to the information sources.

UK population over 18 79% of 68.5M = 54.1M
Pay everyone £12K per year. Cost is 54.1M x £12K = £649Bn (or 86% of your estimate of £720Bn, but what is 14.5% between friends a mere year’s worth of difference?). Close enough.

68.5M current x 0.79 = 54.1M

Second - Govt debt is £2,223 Bn and last year’s addition was £324Bn, or 15% of GDP
UK government debt and deficit - Office for National Statistics
• UK general government gross debt was £2,223.0 billion at the end of the financial year ending March 2021, equivalent to 103.6% of gross domestic product (GDP).
• UK general government deficit (or net borrowing) was £323.9 billion in the financial year ending March 2021, equivalent to 15.1% of GDP.

Third - deflators since 1978/1979
The figures show that GDP has grown by 6.0% per year compounded over 42 years using the compound formula A = P(1+i)^n where A = £2,223Bn (2021), P = £192Bn (1978), and n = 42 years.

So it’s time for the government to repeat the practices of the 1970s (not just our government - the USA has printed 40% more USDs (M2) in the past two years than all USDs in existence prior to 2000).

Analysis of recent gloom and doom news.
Pending world war 3 (blame historical enemies, sanction them, get the public on your side, tell them that times are going to be harder) - prepare the public to be on the side of their government - there is a foreign enemy to beat here and instead of moaning about how useless the government is, the general public decide to support their governments’ decisions to “kill the enemy”. Note here that whether the enemy targets are real or imaginary depends on the success of the preparation plan.
The pandemic has created real shortages of goods. Great excuse for price rises.
Wage inflation must follow so that the citizens are not starved to death.

Proposed solution for ultimate citizen worship of their government
Announce a universal basic income to cope with inflation (the stated enemy of the state caused by world events such as the pandemic and the pending WW3)

Implement the UBI
Here is what a 15% inflation per year looks like in 10 years time.
Current GDP £2,223bn, GDP in 10 years when inflation is 15% per year = £8,993bn.
Maintain a continuous deficit of £650bn per year - this does not take into account the current £192bn spent on current income support, housing support, or other taxes that would be zeroised with a UBI), so let’s say the net cost is something like £450bn, and is held static for 10 years. £450bn is 20% of current net debt, but is only 5% of net debt in 10 years’ time.
Additional tax revenue? Take your pick. If you can convince the public that they will all receive a minimum basic income regardless of whether they work or not, how can the majority complain? Increase VAT to 25% more like the EU, move the basic tax rate to 50% for any income over £12K per year. The important element here is that the use of magic money can continue to hoodwink the majority of citizens as it has done for 5,000 years since currencies began, and be thanked for it. Job done.

Summary
Note that this situation is simplified from reality but shows how “impermanent loss” can be applied to a currency that its citizens relate to as “static” in terms of value, but in fact has eroded real purchasing power 1,000% over the past 42 years and 10,000% over the past 100 years.

I rest my case

Hi,
The last time I checked at my local library, limited internet access was available. But I did not check how the homeless may be disadvantaged. Same goes for a job centre. The last time I went to our local job centre (with a recently arrived Romanian immigrant), I was less than impressed with the culture of the staff. They basically pointed me at four computers and said “all the jobs are on there”. None of them were functional, so I asked was there an IT helpdesk I could call to find out when the terminals would be repaired and he handed me six pieces of poor quality photocopied advice - all of which had web links to internet-access based services.

I wondered what the internal audit services for such local services looked like, then decided he’d be better off socializing with his other Romanian colleagues who had been here a bit longer than he.

Mate - I’m 40 years a QS ! :slightly_smiling_face: (although latterly concentrating mostly on Forensic Contractual Claims and Litigations)

"Quantity surveyor - Wikipedia

.

Just Top of the head stuff - done “on the back of a fag packet”- But without undue bias - so good we are starting from a similar viewpoint.

Not quite “the same” - for a couple of quite big reasons

  • a) “governments” do Not actually control “their currencies” - Private Companies (Central Banks - actually Do that - and “Loan” the money to the “Governments” at Interest ! (though why on earth that should be has often been a matter of debate - sometimes vitrioloic)
  • b) Cryptos (I think of Bitcoin in particular) are supposed to be “finite” in total amount and beyond Governmental Manipulation (Which is one of the main reasons “Governments”, “Banks” and “Regulators” concurrently Hate and Covet them !
  • So “cryptos” do have some of the properties of a “gold Standard” wheeas “Fiat” currencies suffer from the same issues which destroyed the original “Paper Money” invented by John LAw. - Those are the same issues which “Modern Monetary Theory” relies upon to propose and be relaxed about “Quantitave Easing” / “Printing money” - call it what you will - a sort of Keynesianism on Steroids! -

AND imo “UBI” would absolutely need to operate in the realms of MMT (ie nobody ever pays their debts back) [At least - Not if you’re a GOVERNMENT"]

Personally I’m ambivalent about “Cryptos” - I do feel that they do offer sonme hope for humanity - because - if everyone actually read and understood this book

They would understand just what a fraudulent con trick “Money” actually is and simply refuse to use the stupid stuff !

The book is however hugely informative - the more so since it is the only convincing explanation I havve ever heard of the “Business cycle” - which Classical Economics just basically ignores !

[If you do buy it - jsut ignore the second half (it is split in two) and I think it credits “Governments” with way too much

  • a) Integrity
  • b) Goodwill towards the population as a whole !
  • c) Sound Judgement

I’ve thought about your UBI for a while both before and since you mentioned it - as One or two others whose judgement I respect also seem enamoured of it - and now I think it is simply a device which follows the principles of Marxism and relies on the same “Need to act in the best interests of the group” shich is the fundamental flaw of Socialism in general !

Your particular version has a couple of fundamental flaws which would render it unworkable “as it is” - for example - you say that Tommor would simply receive his £12,000 on top of his State pension and his “Public Employee’s Pension” - yet you also imply that the single parent mother - with th efive kids - would be expected to fund hetr own Housing and Utilities costs as well as feeding, and clothing her brood (all on that £12,000) which is clearly neither equitable nor possible - yet those adminsitering her “Benefits” would have been sacked to get “Proper jobs” !

[EDIT - I was just reading through this and realised - Jeez - £12,000 per adult ! - That’s a tax on kids ! - in a world of worrying population decline - that is teh kiss of death to Western Civilisation ! ]

So compexities would have to be introduced and still those on micro incomes would not benefit - and most (one suspects) would suffer greatly - both n comparative terms and in absolute terms because one again suspects that the net effect of all those £12.000’s would be simply to push property and accomodation costs “through the roof” - especially in our congested little island.

Inflation

Inflation - despite being demonised by successive “rich men” and “Bankers” - is actually the friend of the debtor and of the “Property owner” - in fact ANY “Asset owner” benefits from Inflation - whereas those who are “Saving” and those on fixed incomes are devastated finacially as it devalues “Money” and kills the assets of “Pensions Saving” stone dead ! - Pointless “Saving towards a pension” in tnflationary times - unless those “Savings” are held in “Assets”.

IN fact I am amazed it has taken so long for “Inflation” to kick in - From around 2005 to 2007 I used to meet up several times a year to discuss with a few Mates - what to do about the forthcoming Banks Crash! [ which we all knew was coming] - They ALL without exception followed teh doctrines of Martin Weiss and Bob Prechter and expected massive deflation as teh Banks went Bust [because the debts were too big for “giovernments” to bale out !

I was the ONLY one who said - "No they will ‘Bale them out’ and then Inflate their way ouit of it "!

THe real problem is that "Government Debt is now so big that the INTEREST on teh Govt Debt - will become unpayable if they increas “Bank Rate” to combat Inflation !

So what say we - Hungary ? Germany / John LAw ? Rome 200o years ago ? - they ALL went the same way - unpayable debt - financed by “Quantitive Easing” - Followed by simple Lack of Public Confidence in “Money”

Pronlem is - if the USA and Uk go that way - then what WILL the rest of the worlsd call “Money” and why should anyone actually trust THAT “currency” in any case ?

No mate - the world of “real money” is in a severe crisis and it may be that your Cryptos and NFTs - Do become the "Phoenix rising from the ashes ! - I do wonder if that is WHY "Bitcoin so stubbornly “holds up” ?

[EDIT 2 - If I sound somewhat dogmatic or dismissive - it comes from 40 years as a QS - Monthly valuations - Argiue like hell all morning - go out for lunch and a nice chat - argue like hell all afternoon - then shake hands on the agreed price and wander off happy until next month. - Also th estroppy contractual letters - so I never devoloped the skills of diplomatic argument - which I so admire in your writings - PLease don’t feel intimidated - It’s just my way and I’d really like a decent discussion / argument on this one ! :sunglasses: ]

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Yes the standard of computers needs to be better if people are going to make money from it and help made available. I think it is a real shame as I genuinely think online opportunities are a superb and relatively untapped area of employment/money making.

I really enjoyed reading your response. Thank you. A QS is an honourable and productive profession. I wish we sometimes had a QS function in the IT world. It is one of those subjects that most people run a mile from, and ends up being fobbed off onto “business analysts or project managers” who when contracted into an organisation are the ones who know least about how their customers treat Capex and Opex and other matters of influence in a QS world.

I find that some matters (like money, currency, public and private debt) deserve far more discussion than they get, so appreciate the two way conversation. Some of this I say tongue in cheek, and I have chosen one example of your response only to perhaps make that point. In 2006 my wife and I made (perhaps) the biggest mistake of our lives by assuming that property values would just continue increasing. We took a conscious decision to multiply the value of our property holdings by 10X and take advantage of the banks offerings (maybe we were only late by about two or three years, but we were late). So we saddled ourselves with about £3M of property debt to own a portfolio whose theoretical value was almost £5M. Well, some was in Spain (the Canaries) and most was in the North East of England (high yielding buy to let properties that were supported by about 75% of tenants being on full income support. It made sense at the time.

Wind forward 15 years, and the properties are still valued at less than the 2007 peak price. So I would really support inflation in the UK - the higher the better - just because I am a greedy b()()ard. :laughing:

It was a return to an interest in Forex around 2011 and a change in the type of consulting I do that brought me to appreciate risk management far more than I had in the past, so that eventual migration to a love of Crypto was actually based on managing risk rather than taking a punt at something that seemed to be a one way street as 2017 ended (maybe a repeat of what we are seeing right now in the crypto market).

And you mention that the poor waif with five kids would suffer in proportion. There should always be exceptions and safety nets as much as a modern society can afford to provide, but there is also a strange and bad outcome for those waifs that some would say encouraged a single mother to have five kids in the first place. We are sandwiched between two council estates where I live, and I personally know families who go out of their way to create social friction with a goal of achieving their own council houses instead of having to live in those of their parents. I am not trying to generalize but one family we know all used to live in one council house. Now they live in three council houses on the same estate and they are proud that they have achieved that status. The eldest daughter now has four children aged between 1 year and 17 years - there are four fathers, none of which live with the family. This may represent 0.0001% of reality (or not) but it is nevertheless the truth.

I have looked at that book on eBay. I will wait till I can get a 75% below market value version before I buy it. I can afford to wait for good stuff to read.

I guess why work when you can beg…

Okay yes I guess this I kind of understand. it’s an expensive addiction and one that doesnt allow you to function normally.

In UK you can buy horrendous cheap "cider"8 % volume here ,they probably drink that .They had such problem in Scotland they.trebled the price of such drinks As for drugs the drugs maybe they on nasty cheap synthetic drugs like spice

Wow these are things I have never heard of!

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