Usually what I’ll do is look for a trade early in the week and if it’s a good idea, ride it until mid-week, or if it looks to be a great idea, ride it to the end of the week. And/or I will look for a trade mid-week and ride it to the end of the week.
This is useful because I get a fresh start on the week, I don’t really like starting out the week “married to” a position. It also means I’m taking profits frequently on my good ideas, and always leaving myself open for new opportunities every few days. I have time to monitor 6 pairs (the majors) because the charts progress very slowly on a 3h chart. I only watch 6 pairs for the choice of opportunities, never to amplify my earnings: I’m always only holding 1 position at a time. That is a personal choice based on what stresses me out, and not necessarily a trading recommendation!
I just wanted to update everyone here and thank everyone for the advice I was given in this thread. I sort of went back to the drawing board again and went back to support/resistance being the main piece of the puzzle. I look at intraday charts now and play with the S/R all the time. I try to see if I can find a breakout to a trend, I am still pretty bad at the range bound idea.
I decided to unplug fundamentals except the news releases, to be aware when they come out and avoid them like the plague because of the massive head fakes.
It seems you simply need to get into the mood of what the market is doing - trending, or ranging/consolidating. Those are the two basic emotions that one needs to play on.
Discerning that is looking at clues like the shape of the candlesticks (what the wicks are doing), and the time it takes for certain things to happen. It is something that I would imagine is simply a matter of a lot of screen time and getting to know the pair you are trading. I threw the indicators off the chart, except the ATR which is a help to clue me in to how much room I need to give stops.
As far as strategy is concerned, the main point is to look at all the previous S/R levels as bases in a baseball game. You’re waiting for the ball to get hit out of the gate and want the price to run to first, second, third, then home. It might get tagged out at either base, which is why stop losses are trailed.
And lastly, I constantly ask myself about each potential setup: what will indicate to you that you are right? What does price need to do to tell you that? What will indicate that you are wrong?
Trading like that requires a lot of confidence in your analysis, because it’s just you, price and a line or two. That’s why you don’t see a lot of traders as new as you trading that way. Just keep your analysis consistent, your risk per trade fairly low (1-2%), and you will see that experience in itself will build confidence.
I’m sure you know this drill but start out on the demo, move on to a small live account, then start adding funds as your performance improves. Performance analysis is important but just keep it simple. All I look at is my monthly gains, getting my guts in a knot over trade to trade performance is a great way to have a runaway losing streak.
Yes, I mean I’m still getting beaten up badly but I’m feeling better because I’m thinking a bit more clear.
The toughest thing is having a clear framework for decision making, where you demand some kind of objective criteria for making a decision. That is the hardest part for me at the moment, i.e. get in when price is moving in your favor, get in when you got a retrace, when are you wrong, etc.
The most important thing is I realize that after experience and growth, with realistic expectations, its perfectly possible to succeed - it just takes an intense desire and focus.
It’s very true for everyone. Think about the mental feat you are creating for yourself. You have to have 100% confidence in a move that you absolutely know has no certain outcome. Your mind will be doing some desperate things to achieve certainty. Especially after a loss, your mind will attempt to find a certainty in why you lost, and naturally you will wanto correct whatever problem you think you find.
Needless to say you can learn a lot about your level of focus after a losing trade. How well do you deal with it? If it really bothers you, you’re probably in need of some more trading experience!
Yes, and thanks again for your advice. I’ve found its very important to attack each trade with the “high probability, low risk” mentality. Things like chasing price, or catching a falling knife, or getting involved because I’m bored and have been waiting too long, are directly opposite of that. It definitely does take a lot of self reflection to get that out.
The worst trade is the “accidental win”, where you did something without really thinking and then got a big hit. Those are very dangerous in my view, because it gives you an incorrect sense that you can always “try your luck”.
Needless to say you can learn a lot about your level of focus after a losing trade. How well do you deal with it? If it really bothers you, you’re probably in need of some more trading experience!
Yes, I agree totally.
Right now here is what I look at to come up with an objective decision:
Support/resistance off the horizontal lines.
Trend lines, which I pay slightly less attention to than horizontals.
A 4 hour timeframe, which is next to the 15 minute window.
Watching the candles, and looking for simple things like Doji’s, stars, and hanging man/hammers, not the complicated Nison stuff.
Having trader pivots on my screen.
Having the 50 and 00 handles marked off.
Marking off significant prior highs and lows.
Having the weekly close plotted.
I do have some moving averages, but I largely ignore them right now. I have no indicators on the screen whatsoever, outside of ATR just to help me see the volatility.
I am just sticking with the Euro right now, and I also check the GBP/JPY. I did this in order to have one dollar correlated pair and one non dollar cross, although it seems the risk theme makes the JPY and USD very correlated (the crosses move during dollar news releases).
I totally ignore fundamentals right now, I just scan for when data and news events are scheduled, and try not to be involved when that happens for at least 15-30 minutes.
My main focus seems to be breakouts from ranges. I’m down since I’ve started, but I figure at least now I’m a bit more focused.
I really agree with you about a system for trading. It removes any emotional bias from the game. My question is trading systems only available for short term trading