so from the example of SR trader you have stated how would you have reacted or in other words how do you see what the market is telling you
Not sure if this is meant for me but it came to my messages - I’m not an SR trader - I’m a breakout, even momentum trader.
The idea of fading market momentum fills me with dread and I personally am very suspect of horizontal lines on charts that are supposed to contain price.
Welcome to the beginning of the end of your FX problems little Padawan.
You’ll never get perfect in your analysis and prediction, no one ever did. Not even the incredible cyclopip.
The best you can ever do is
- Accept intellectually and at heart that trading is a matter of probabilities, you’re good to go as long as the probabilities are in your favor.
- Success in the end will not be defined by how much money you’ll make but by how consistently you follow your edges in the markets, the more consistently you follow your edges, the more consistent your profits will be.
- To understand and appreciate these intellectually, you need to read the book trading in the zone by Mark Douglas. However, you can listen to his talks on how to trade like a professional trader off YouTube.
- You need to develop the emotional skills to do what it takes to trade consistently, to do this, I recommend you a) take a Mindfulness meditation course b) read trading mindfully by (I’ve forgotten the author) c) read the book “Andy Puddicombe
The Headspace Guide to… Mindfulness & Meditation: 10 minutes can make all the difference” by Andy Puddicombe.
You’ll never be right about your analysis all the time, you’ll only get consistent profits when you apply your edges consistently, it’s not about the next ten trades, about the next 50 or 1000 trades.
Good luck but in trading, luck won’t help.
There’s a couple of factors that helped me tremendously:
- Invest enough time to develop and backtest your system with historical charts, in which you use the historical charts with the same amount of info you would have as if you were trading real-time. I invested several months going through charts, different market conditions and cycles, from very low to extreme volatility etc to make sure my system was robust enough to withstand. This was my first milestone to grow confidence in my system.
- Obviously the process described above does not take into account any emotions you go through when trading live. Everyone has to deal with this and it’s crazy what dopamine does with your body at that point in time. But what I learned (and am still learning), is that if you did a proper analysis, the same way you did when going through historical charts, you enter your trade and just step away from the screen, let the strategy play out, log off from your trading account, and try focusing on other things (go outside, sport…). My worst trades were often the ones where I enter a trade, then constantly checking what it was doing while I should just have relied on my strategy to play out. In the end what you want to achieve is to have the real-life situation mimick as close as possible your simulation (and vice versa obviously) which showed your strategy to be profitable. And another idea that gives me a lot of comfort is the fact that, in the end, it is pure statistics. And you cannot have statistics without outliers.
you can start with the demo trading to boost your confidence and you need to focused on your trading plans and the strategies you are using for the trading.
Maybe these tips are useful to you, they can help increase confidence when operating in the markets:
-Know your trading style
-Set a time frame to operate
-Focus on some currency pairs
-Determine your risk tolerance
-Focus on the process and not on the results
-Reflect and learn when your confidence is threatened
-Avoid overconfidence when trading
I also need to focus on the process not the outcome. I need that reminder
In case, you have just started trading i would recommend you to go through this link. Always follow these golden rules to protect your capital and begin with sensible trading
Confidence is gained through trading. For some people it takes longer than for others, my advice is to keep trading and to keep learning. Take fewer risks and learn from your mistakes.
Define your boundaries while risking.
Define a strategy for trading
Set aside your emotions
Keep up with the markets
Make peace with the fact that losing every once in a while is part of the process.
Thanks for the reference! I backtested the pin bar strategies from your blog and got really good results. It’s my favorite Daily tf strategy I’ve found. Super simple and straightforward.
That’s really great news - it gives me lots of encouragement for my blog.
I will say though while I approve of backtesting, going forward it depends very much how disciplined you are in sticking to it.
One of my concerns about explaining my strategies is that if someone uses it and has a loss either they just disregard it (and call me an idiot) or they start tweaking it beyond all recognition.
This is a very common cycle for beginners.
Another potential issue is this particular strategy does not provide too many signals - which is why I prefer the harami inside bar as my bread and butter and pin bar as a little extra flavouring.
I do congratulate you though for deciding on daily charts, by choosing that timeframe you are potentially eliminating many of the discipline problems associated with intraday trading
Finally you might want to check out the weekly charts for this strategy which have amazing results in many cases.
On a weekly you don’t need the second entry the first entry with very small risk works wonders.
Keep checking out the blog from time to time as I have a number of interesting but simple techniques I’m going to be writing about.
You need to watch yotube and read up forum.
Here is one that get me started. Western forex yotube are lengthy and mostly in theory.
Watch the Asian one that is straight to the point.
When you are in forex trading, it is purely buying on trends. Beware of stop lost hunting, google it.
Start keeping track of how often your analysis has been correct. If it’s correct more often than not and you’re not following through due to confidence issues, refer to that track every time you feel insecure.
My advice, think forex as a side income. I did the same. Before,farming was my main income and i trade as a side. Now i’m confident enough to trade full time and farming(now it’s gardening) as a hobby. Cheers
Those are some really good suggestions.
Same problem. But I believe the only way to gain more confidence in my trades is through constant practice.
Trading, for me is the only way, that way you start to think as a strategist and as a professional. Of course the time will come when you lose money, but rest assured that it will make you stronger at the time.
Confidence and experience go hand in hand. The more you gain experience more will be the learning. When you understand what effects the market and how much is the magnitude of each market movement, you are able to form realistic trading strategies considering each and every factor. Trading with calculative strategies automatically build confidence in the trader as he is aware of all the possible cases and knows how they will respond to it.
I have been trying for quite some time to learn how to work with Forex. Basically - it’s all about experience. And experience usually depends on work time and desire to learn.